国投期货能源日报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer short - term bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [4][5] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the multi - empty trend and poor operability on the market [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market's medium - term bearish trend continues, and prices are expected to decline. Products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas will be affected by the crude oil market and their own fundamentals, showing different trends [1][2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 2.3% today. The agreement between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region to resume exports of 230,000 barrels per day pressured the market. The market's supply - demand surplus will increase in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, with surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day and 2.67 million barrels per day respectively. The average price of Brent is expected to drop from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the average price of SC from 500 yuan per barrel to about 465 yuan per barrel. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, demand has declined, Chinese imports in August decreased significantly month - on - month, and the summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has subsided. Although the Singapore high - sulfur inventory has decreased, it remains high. The fundamentals have limited impact on prices, but concerns about supply support high - sulfur valuations. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply was pressured due to the RFCC device failure in Nigeria, but this negative factor has been somewhat digested. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will follow crude oil and maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran, Russia, and Ukraine [2] Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly month - on - month. There is a pre - holiday rush demand in the northern regions. The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year - on - year increase and little month - on - month change. The factory inventory remained stable month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 57,000 tons, and the overall inventory level decreased month - on - month. The asphalt futures price is in an oscillatory consolidation pattern with support below [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil led the decline in oil product futures, and LPG slightly followed. The refineries' increased self - use of liquefied gas squeezed the external supply, causing the commodity volume to decline compared with last week. Typhoon weather in the South China region affected the import arrival, and the import arrival volume in East China increased month - on - month but remained at a low level. The combustion demand was stable, the chemical consumption of olefin C4 and propane decreased while the chemical consumption of butane increased, and the overall consumption increased slightly. It is expected that the LPG market will mainly oscillate at the bottom [3]