两粕、油脂全线大跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is affected by various factors, with most varieties showing a downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's agricultural product export tax has a significant negative impact on two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oil products, increasing global supply pressure and driving prices down. Other products are also under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and harvest expectations [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Affected by Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export tax, two - meal and oil products tumbled, and the market will be weak. Hog prices continued to fall due to oversupply [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - Affected by Argentina's tax - exemption policy, the U.S. soybean futures price dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal output increased, inventory reached a new high, and the futures price hit a more than 4 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 2907, and the resistance is 2950 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - Argentina's tax - exemption policy led to intensified international market competition, triggering large - scale selling and pushing down the futures price. Domestically, supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and the futures price hit a nearly 2 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8000, and the resistance is 8100 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - Affected by Argentina's policy, the Chicago and Dalian bean markets' selling spread to the palm oil market. Domestically, supply and demand are both weak, and the spot price dropped by 400 yuan/ton. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8946, and the resistance is 9132 [6]. 3.2.4 Corn - The new corn harvest expectation is being realized, the spot price is weak, and the futures market is in the process of contract roll - over. The 2511 contract rebounded from a low level, while the 2601 contract continued to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a short order should be held. The support for the 2511 contract is 2138, and the resistance is 2162 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and there is still a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released. After the festival stocking, the consumption support is insufficient, and the egg price is under great pressure to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 3046, and the resistance is 3086 [10]. 3.2.6 Hogs - The supply pressure is high due to increased concentrated slaughter. Consumption demand has a limited increase, and the futures price hit a new low. Technically, it is weak, and short selling is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 12600, and the resistance is 12800 [13]. 3.2.7 Cotton - New cotton is expected to have a good harvest, while downstream demand is less than expected. The futures price hit a 3 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 13500, and the resistance is 13605 [14][16]. 3.2.8 Apples - Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed. There is a short - term supply gap, and the price is supported. The market has some short - long liquidation, and the price fluctuates narrowly. Technically, it is strong, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8253, and the resistance is 8350 [17][19]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and there is an expected reduction in production. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The futures price continued to rebound. Technically, short orders should be closed, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 10700, and the resistance is 10870 [20]. 3.2.10 White Sugar - The good harvest prospects in major sugar - producing countries overseas have pressured the external market, driving down Zhengzhou sugar. Domestically, supply has increased, and demand has entered the off - season, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 5424, and the resistance is 5472 [22].