Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - Today, SC closed with a downward break, leading to an accelerated decline in the energy and chemical sector. Whether the downside space for crude oil can be opened depends on the synchronous confirmation from external markets. Short positions on the fundamental side of the energy and chemical sector entered the market based on technical signals in early and mid - August, and after nearly two months, most varieties have achieved significant profit margins. - Near the National Day holiday, it is subjectively recommended that those who hold existing short positions do not necessarily need to liquidate all positions but should gradually reduce their positions and only keep a partial position for the holiday. If WTI breaks through the strong support level of $60 during the National Day holiday, there will be significant short - term downside acceleration space. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Crude Oil - Logic: At the time of further production increases by OPEC+ and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the likelihood of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year remains high. The strategy is to not over - emphasize short - term bullish disturbances and to maintain a bearish view based on the medium - term surplus fundamentals. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil shows a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a gap - down opening, and a long - negative candlestick. The daily K - line closed at a new low and broke through the support level, and the hourly closing was close to the previous low. After the external market confirms the break, the market may accelerate. The short - term resistance above is at the 479 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although there are device overhauls affecting the supply - side operating rate, the weekly production of styrene can still maintain a high level year - on - year due to the high profits of integrated devices. The demand has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the peak season for downstream industries, but under the pressure of imports, the styrene inventory has continued to reach new historical highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory pattern of styrene is difficult to change, and the pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new devices from September to October remains. The supply pressure will continue, and with the downstream inventory also at a historical high, the fundamental driving force for styrene remains downward. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new low. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6935 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [5][8] (3) Rubber - Logic: The prices of overseas raw materials have declined, weakening the cost support. The domestic inventory is depleting slowly and remains at a high level year - on - year, exerting pressure. With the decline of crude oil, there is also pressure from the substitution effect of synthetic rubber. On the demand side, the operating rate of semi - steel tires has dropped significantly, but the operating rate of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral, with no major contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to whether there are typhoon disturbances, and currently, the path of Typhoon Hikaa does not pass through Hainan, so the impact may be limited. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber shows a sideways trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 16000 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [10][12] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has recovered with the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the high operating rate of downstream semi - steel tires under inventory pressure has been maintained. The main focus is on the cost side of butadiene. Recently, with the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previously tight inventory pattern. In the medium term, as the production capacity of butadiene is put into operation, the supply pressure will gradually materialize. The most upstream crude oil is also preparing to materialize the surplus pressure as the demand side switches from the peak season to the off - season and OPEC+ continues to increase production. The fundamental logic for synthetic rubber is bearish on the cost side. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of synthetic rubber shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a small decline. There may be position - reducing actions before the holiday, but the large - scale increase in positions since the end of August still remains. The short - term resistance above is at the 11730 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 11730 level. [14][16] (5) PX - Logic: The profit of PX is favorable, and the operating rate remains high. There are more unplanned overhauls of downstream PTA, so the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is more driven by the cost side of crude oil. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in a downward trend. Today, it followed crude oil to break through the previous low. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6655 level. - Strategy: According to the plan in Friday's evening report, there was an opportunity to enter the market at 15 - minute intervals after the end of the rebound yesterday morning. Hold short positions and lower the stop - profit to the 6570 level. [20] (6) PTA - Logic: The cost - side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus pressure in the fourth quarter, which will drive down the cost. PTA itself also has an expectation of supply - demand weakening and inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the peak season was not prosperous in the early stage, and the load recovery of downstream industries was limited. As it enters the off - season from September to November, the demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year, although the processing fee has declined, the output is still at a high level year - on - year. In the future, there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand. Along with the downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, the fundamentals of PTA are still relatively pessimistic. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is at the 4620 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4620 level. The 4570 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit reference. [22][24] (7) PP - Logic: The demand has improved month - on - month during the peak season, but the improvement is limited. On the supply side, the second line of Ningbo Daxie has been put into operation at the end of August, and the first line has also been commissioned. The supply pressure has further increased with the increase in production capacity. The short - term supply pressure still exists, but after the high - level decline in the futures price, one should be cautious about shorting. In addition, attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, there was a small decline during the day, and the closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance is at the 7000 level. - Strategy: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [25][27] (8) Methanol - Logic: The pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectation continues. The domestic production decreased last week but is still at a high level year - on - year. In addition, after the resumption of production in Iran in August, a large number of ship cargoes have recently arrived at ports, leading to a significant increase in imports. After the overhaul of downstream olefins is completed, the comprehensive operating rate has declined, but the port inventory has continued to increase slightly and is at the highest level in the same period in history. The huge inventory continues to exert pressure on the futures price. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve with the commissioning of new downstream devices and the seasonal gas restrictions in Iran, and there is a reversal logic. However, currently, the 01 contract has a premium of 100 yuan (nearly 5%) over the spot price, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The futures price has already partially reflected the expectation of future supply - demand improvement, and the current valuation of the 01 contract is not low, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. One should wait to go long, at least until seeing a decline in Iranian shipments and an improvement in downstream demand. Currently, the decline since August has not ended under the pressure of the huge inventory and the pressure on MTO demand due to the decline of crude oil. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated during the day, but the hourly closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 2375 level. - Strategy: Since a partial stop - profit was taken earlier, cautiously hold the remaining short positions, and use the 2375 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. [29][31] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The real estate demand has not bottomed out, and India has announced the final anti - dumping ruling on PVC, significantly increasing the tax on Chinese products, which has affected both domestic and export demand. The inventory has continued to accumulate and reached the highest level in the same period in history. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in a downward trend. Today, after breaking through the support level, the short - term structure returned to the downward trend. The short - term resistance above is at the 4980 level (relatively far), and the 15 - minute resistance is at the 4930 level. - Strategy: After taking profit last week, stay on the sidelines. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds that fail to break through the resistance at 15 - minute intervals. [33] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The weekly operating rates of MEG and its downstream industries have not changed significantly month - on - month, but the port inventory of ethylene glycol has continued to decline slightly. The short - term situation is relatively strong, and there are no major supply - demand contradictions. However, attention should be paid to the supply pressure from the expected commissioning of new devices in the future and the driving force from the decline of crude oil. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a decline, and a new low. The short - term resistance has been lowered to the 4275 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4275 level. [35] (11) Plastic - Logic: The weekly operating rate of PE has increased. In August, the second line of 450,000 tons of new production capacity in Ningbo Daxie has been put into production, and the remaining 450,000 tons are planned to start operation in mid - September. The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The downstream demand has increased month - on - month during the peak season, but the increase is limited, and the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. The supply - demand situation is bearish, but the decline in the futures price in September has already reflected this to some extent. Attention should be paid to the cost - driving force from the decline of crude oil. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 7205 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level. The 7140 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit level. [39] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The pattern of high production and high inventory has not improved. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of soda ash shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 1321 level. - Strategy: Hold short positions at the hourly level, and use the 15 - minute resistance as a reference. [41] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine on the supply side remains loose. On the demand side, alumina enterprises generally maintain a high - operating - rate pattern under profitable conditions, and the demand in the non - aluminum sector has increased limitedly during the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the pressure of the high - level inventory year - on - year continues to be reflected. The short - term fundamentals have weakened again compared with last week. In the medium term, attention should continue to be paid to the improvement in demand during device overhauls and the downstream peak season. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new short - term low. It is difficult to find the short - term resistance, and tentatively, the 15 - minute small - cycle resistance is at the 2575 level. - Strategy: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [43]
SC向下破位，等待外盘同步确认后或加速
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-23 12:24