黑龙江省资本市场跟踪报告:黑龙江省资本市场跟踪双周报-20250923
Jianghai Securities·2025-09-23 13:05
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January to August, Heilongjiang's tourism market was strong, with significant growth in tourist arrivals and consumption. The province's tourism promotion and the Russia visa - free policy will further boost the sector. The ice and snow economy development and green energy progress also contribute to economic sustainability [3][8][9]. - In September, the Heilongjiang stock index adjusted, and listed companies' performance was mixed. However, short - term adjustments may lay the foundation for future market strength, and market fluctuations are normal during the upcoming quarterly report disclosure period [3][24]. - Affected by factors like US interest rate cuts and overseas political uncertainties, the equity market and precious metals are expected to perform well [12]. - In the long - term, the market is expected to rise due to China's economic improvement and warming Sino - US relations [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Heilongjiang Current Affairs Tracking - January - August tourism: Heilongjiang received 184 million tourists, a 11.9% y/y increase, with a total spending of 250.18 billion yuan, up 21.2% y/y. Inbound tourists were 1.107 million, spending 12.13 billion yuan, up 54.9% and 61.7% respectively. The Russia visa - free policy on September 15 increased Russian tourist arrivals [3][8]. - Ice and snow events: From 2025 to 2026, Heilongjiang plans over 300 ice and snow events, including local and international competitions, to promote the ice and snow economy [9]. - Green energy: Daqing Oilfield's new - energy power generation exceeded 2 billion kWh, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 1.07 million households in Daqing. It also reduced coal consumption and improved operational efficiency [10]. 3.2 Financial Market Data Tracking - Asset performance: Since September, equities and precious metals like gold and silver have performed well. US interest rate cuts and other factors are favorable for the equity market, and precious metals remain popular as safe - havens [11][12]. - Industry index: As of September 19, only the power equipment sector rose significantly (11.28%), while defense, non - bank finance, and others adjusted. From September 15 - 19, most industries adjusted, but some like coal and power equipment performed well [15][18]. - Regional and listed companies: By September 19, the Heilongjiang index fell 2.23% this month. Among listed companies, Senying Window Industry had the largest increase (14.21%), while Aerospace Science and Technology had the largest decline (20.33%) [20][24]. 3.3 Domestic Macroeconomic Data - CPI: In August, China's CPI was down 0.4% y/y, flat m/m. Core CPI rose 0.9% y/y, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month due to consumption - promotion policies [3][27]. - PPI: In August, PPI was down 2.9% y/y, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 pct from July. It was flat m/m, ending eight months of decline, thanks to market optimization, new growth drivers, and increased consumption demand [29][30]. - Industrial added value: In August, the value - added of large - scale industries rose 5.2% y/y and 0.37% m/m. From January to August, it rose 6.2% y/y. Equipment and high - tech manufacturing performed well, and emerging product output grew rapidly [31][33]. 3.4 Heilongjiang Economic Data - CPI: In August, Heilongjiang's CPI was down 0.4% y/y but up 0.1% m/m. Its y/y change was above - average among provinces and higher than Jilin and Liaoning [34]. - Price categories: In August, the eight major categories of consumer prices in Heilongjiang showed a "five - up, three - down" pattern y/y, and a mixed performance m/m [38].