再论国债买卖与降息

Group 1: Government Bond Trading - Recent expectations for the resumption of government bond trading have increased due to discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, indicating a potential tool reactivation [9][10] - The market anticipates that the current adjustments in bond yields and spreads have created sufficient space for the resumption of trading, with long-term and ultra-long-term bonds showing significant yield levels [9][10] - The recent increase in purchases of short-term bonds by major banks has amplified market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading, as banks have shown limited capacity to hold ultra-long bonds [10][16] Group 2: Interest Rate Cuts - The recent press conference highlighted that the central bank's monetary policy remains focused on domestic conditions, with no immediate plans for rate cuts despite global trends [25][27] - The market's expectation for a potential interest rate cut is tempered by the current economic stability and the reduced necessity for aggressive monetary easing compared to the previous year [25][27] - If an interest rate cut occurs, the extent of the cut will be crucial, with expectations leaning towards a continuation of the previous 10 basis points, which may limit the positive impact on the market [29]