策略日报：关注银行板块的配置机会-20250923

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the focus on the banking sector as a potential investment opportunity, particularly as it shows resilience near the annual support level [4][18][24] - The A-share market is expected to experience volatility ahead of the holiday, with a recommendation to avoid sectors with high financing ratios due to associated risks [4][18] - The technology sector is facing challenges, including a decline in market profitability and a crowded chip structure, suggesting a potential for a phase of correction [4][18][19] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The report notes that the overall A-share index has increased by 18.18% since June 23, with the TMT sector contributing 42% to this rise [4][18] - The banking sector is expected to outperform during the adjustment period of the technology sector, given its favorable dividend yield compared to government bond yields [4][18] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market remains the best choice among major asset classes, with expectations of a soft landing and re-inflation narrative gaining traction in the fourth quarter [24] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Developments - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of stability, with second-quarter growth revised up to 3.3%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2023 [24] - It mentions that the OECD forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, with a slowdown to 2.9% in 2026 [40] - The report discusses the expansion of inflationary pressures across various sectors, with core inflation indicators rising to levels not seen since 2021 [24][5]