资产配置日报：风险提前释放-20250923

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in the stock market, with the Wind All A Index dropping by 0.63% and a trading volume of 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan from the previous day [1][2] - There was a net outflow of 10.2 billion yuan from stock ETFs, with the major outflows occurring in chip-related ETFs, indicating a cautious outlook on the index market [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment ETF saw a net inflow of 200 million yuan, suggesting a targeted investment strategy within the semiconductor sector [2][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced larger declines than the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.70% and 1.45% respectively, influenced by hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials [3] - Despite the overall market pressure, Alibaba continued to attract significant net inflows, indicating investor confidence in its AI narrative and business expansion [3][4] - The report suggests that while there is pressure on thematic investments, there remains resilience as funds seek new consensus, indicating potential opportunities in sectors like semiconductor equipment and energy storage [3][4] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure on yields, primarily driven by concerns over the potential impact of new redemption fee regulations for bond funds [4][5] - Institutions are reportedly accelerating the redemption of bond funds, which may lead to a preemptive release of market risks [5][6] - The report emphasizes that leveraging and coupon strategies remain the best safe havens in the current bond market environment [6] Group 4 - The commodity market is showing signs of weakness, with precious metals like gold and silver continuing to rise, while basic metals are underperforming [7][8] - The report notes a significant outflow of funds from the new energy sector, particularly in polysilicon, reflecting pressure on previously high-valued commodities [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is shifting from policy-driven narratives to a focus on actual supply and demand conditions, indicating a need for careful monitoring of inventory and demand recovery [8]