Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - Agriculture, Forestry, and Livestock (Corn): Bullish on dips [2] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: Short on rallies [5] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, spot prices are stabilizing during the new - old crop transition, with support and resistance levels. In the medium - term, trading is driven by new - season factors. In the long - term, pricing is based on import substitution and planting costs [2]. - Pig: Short - term supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices. Medium - term supply is expected to increase. Long - term, high sow inventory and high efficiency will lead to continuous production [5]. - Egg: In the medium - short term, post - mid - month, price momentum weakens. In the long term, supply pressure may re - emerge depending on hen culling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - Market Review: Overnight, the corn futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The 2511 contract rose 0.23% to close at 2156 yuan/ton [2]. - Important Information: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices fluctuated; port prices were stable to firm; futures warehouse receipts decreased; the wheat - corn price spread was positive [2]. - Market Logic: Short - term, spot prices are stabilizing, and the price is affected by import auctions and price spreads. Medium - term, it's driven by new - season factors. Long - term, it follows the import substitution and planting cost logic [2]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the medium - long term. Look for short - term low - buying opportunities near support levels [2]. Pig - Market Review: The pig futures continued to decline. The LH2511 contract dropped 1.48% to close at 12665 yuan/ton [5]. - Important Information: The national average pig price decreased; sow inventory was high; the price spread between fattening and standard pigs narrowed; the weekly average slaughter weight increased; futures warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - Market Logic: Short - term, supply exceeds demand. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase. Long - term, high sow inventory will lead to continuous production [5]. - Trading Strategy: Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic. Consider taking profits on short positions. Far - month contracts focus on the expected change in sow inventory [5]. Egg - Market Review: The egg futures continued to decline. The JD2511 contract dropped 1% to close at 3065 yuan/500kg [5]. - Important Information: Egg prices were stable; inventory increased; the price of culled hens rose; the estimated laying - hen inventory decreased in September [5]. - Market Logic: Medium - short term, price momentum weakens after mid - month. Long - term, supply pressure may re - emerge depending on hen culling [5]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Look for selling - hedging opportunities for high - price contracts for farmers [5].
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250924
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-24 00:07