鲍威尔称美股估值较高，俄罗斯讨论柴油出口禁令

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose strong tariffs on Russia, and Powell emphasizes employment and inflation risks. Gold prices are driven up by Fed's potential rate - cut expectations and Trump's tariff sanctions, but there is a risk of correction before the National Day holiday in China [13][14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of price correction in the short term [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Three Fed officials think setting an inflation target range is more beneficial. Trump believes Ukraine can retake all its territory, and Powell says US stocks are "valued quite high". The US dollar index is expected to be weak in the short term [16][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Wang Yi meets with US congressmen, and China's education reaches the average level of high - income countries. The A - share market shows a V - shaped reversal with increased trading volume, and the technology sector remains resilient. Short - term attention should be paid to trading volume changes [20][21]. - Investment advice: Consider moderate profit - taking [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI decline. Powell mentions that the stock market is over - valued, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the overall outlook is still positive [23][24][27]. - Investment advice: Although valuation concerns may cause short - term disturbances, maintain a bullish view overall [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is in a weak sentiment, and short - term trading should follow a range - bound strategy [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term and avoid chasing up [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Domestic soybean mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes during the National Day holiday are reported, and some mills in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. Argentina suspends export taxes on grains and oilseed meals, affecting the market [32][33]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to whether M2601 can be effectively supported at 2900 [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreases. Argentina's tax - exemption policy impacts the global oil market, but short - term oversold rebound opportunities can be considered [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term oversold rebound opportunities in the P2601 contract, but control positions [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Muyuan Co., Ltd. establishes an overseas business team. The pig market is in a negative feedback stage, with the short - term trend following the spot market and a medium - long - term view of shorting on rebounds [38]. - Investment advice: Short on rebounds unilaterally and continuously monitor reverse spreads [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. With the approaching of the new corn season, the market expects a bumper harvest and normal listing, and the mid - term view is bearish [40]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions [40]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first eight months exceed 4.7 trillion yuan, and the average construction machinery operating rate in August is 43.42%. Steel prices are range - bound with limited upward and downward space [41][42]. - Investment advice: Expect a range - bound rebound before the holiday, but the space is limited [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn starch exports in August decline. The price of raw corn stops falling, and the export demand is not expected to have a significant positive impact on the fundamentals [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term supply - demand situation of starch is bearish for the corn - starch price spread, but pay attention to potential changes in the regional price spread after the large - scale listing of Northeast corn [44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are growing normally, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 shows a small increase. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to be range - bound, and pay attention to the development of jujube fruits and purchasing situation [46]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expected to start in stages by the end of 2025. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and the import pressure is increasing [47][48]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies [49]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic component tender sets a price limit. Polysilicon prices are expected to be range - bound, and the spot price is not expected to fall in October. The component price is expected to be range - bound, and the terminal demand may decline [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The polysilicon price is expected to be range - bound between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and consider going long at the current level [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's silicon wafer exports in August increase. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in September - October and reduce inventory in November - December. The strategy of going long on dips has a higher probability of success [54][55]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - High US tariffs disrupt the stainless - steel market. The nickel market has potential supply - side disturbances, and the low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. - Investment advice: The global nickel inventory is high, but low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India initiates an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese copper cables. The macro - support for copper prices weakens, but the inventory accumulation pressure eases. Copper prices are expected to continue to be range - bound at a high level [57][61]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, and be cautious during the holiday. Also, wait and see for arbitrage [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to issue bonds for debt refinancing, and a lithium carbonate project is put into production. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the price may fall after the demand peak [62][63][64]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious when shorting in the short term, and consider shorting on rebounds in the medium term [64]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a deep contango. The domestic lead market has improved demand, and the social inventory has reached an inflection point. The price is expected to be range - bound and bullish [65]. - Investment advice: Try to go long on dips for single - sided trading and consider positive spreads for arbitrage [65]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a backwardation, and some zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. The market has a potential soft - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc price is affected. Consider positive spreads [66][67]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, consider positive spreads for arbitrage, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign trading [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreases, and Russia discusses the possibility of a diesel export ban. Oil prices are range - bound [68][69]. - Investment advice: Wait for new market drivers as oil prices are range - bound [70]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on September 23 increases, but the market volume does not expand significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [70][71]. - Investment advice: Expect a further decline in the short term [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong varies. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be stable in the short term [72][73][74]. - Investment advice: The spot price is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited [74]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is basically stable. The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [75][76]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreases. The market is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits further decline. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's pure benzene import data in August is reported. The pure benzene and styrene markets are range - bound and bearish. The supply of styrene is affected by maintenance, and the demand has short - term resilience [78][79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to how to solve the inventory contradiction after the peak season, and the industrial chain profit may be further compressed [80]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreases, and the market trading volume is acceptable. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and the long - term demand is weak. Pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [81][82][83]. - Investment advice: The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continues to fall. The supply may increase in Q4, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [84][85]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea import and export data in August is reported. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. Pay attention to policy support [87][88][89]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended that strategic reserve buyers make dispersed purchases [89]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreases, and the market trading is normal. The demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation is postponed. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [90][91]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [92]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is normal, and the futures price falls. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to be shorted on rallies [93]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [94]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe is stable. The market is weak, and the 01 contract has a high premium over the spot price. Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [95][96]. - Investment advice: Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [96]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express route is launched. The spot container freight rate is falling, and the 10 - month contract price may decline slightly. Consider short - term arbitrage opportunities [97][98]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profit on the 10 - month contract on dips, pay attention to low - long opportunities for the 12 - month contract after a significant decline, and consider short - term positive spreads for the 12 - 02 contract [98].