Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The data of the synthetic rubber industry chain this week was unexpectedly all positive, and the price difference with natural rubber began to strengthen. When the story of "anti - involution" ends, the macro - attribute of natural rubber fades, and it is suitable as a short - position allocation for synthetic rubber. It is recommended to intervene in the BR - RU strategy in small amounts, with a unilateral price range of 11,450 - 11,650 [22][24]. Summary by Directory Fundamentals - New rubber supply and market sentiment: The supply of new rubber in domestic and foreign production areas increased slowly this week, and port inventories continued to decline. News of state reserve sales, the launch of Thailand's zero - tariff policy pilot project in September 2025, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting made the commodity market cautious. Light - colored rubber had weak orders and high procurement costs, resulting in poor trading performance. Dark - colored rubber was mainly purchased by tire factories before the Double Festival at low prices [4]. - Supply and demand situation: Thailand's cumulative production increased year - on - year. The import of mixed and standard rubber was negative for the mixed basis. The climate conditions in the main production areas were normal, indicating sufficient supply. In terms of consumption, all - steel tires increased production and reduced inventory, while semi - steel tires decreased production and reduced inventory, and both were approaching a tight balance [4]. Synthetic Rubber Supply - Capacity utilization and inventory: China's butadiene capacity utilization rate dropped to 66.8% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year production reduction of 1.2 and marginal production reduction for two consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber dropped to 69.7% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year production increase of 10.5% and marginal production reduction. China's butadiene port inventory dropped to 23,100 tons for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year inventory increase of 3,100 tons and marginal inventory reduction. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber traders and factories decreased to 33,700 tons, with a year - on - year inventory increase of 9,200 tons and marginal inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks [12]. Downstream Consumption - Tire Consumption - All - steel tires: The production line operating rate of all - steel tires increased to 65.7% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and marginal production increase for six consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained at 39 days for three consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year inventory reduction of 14.3% and marginal inventory reduction for two consecutive weeks, showing passive inventory reduction and a tightening balance [21]. - Semi - steel tires: The production line operating rate of semi - steel tires increased to 73.7% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and marginal production reduction for nine consecutive weeks. The product inventory of semi - steel tires remained at 46 days for three consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year inventory increase of 21.8% and marginal inventory reduction for 17 consecutive weeks, showing active inventory reduction [21]. BR - RU Price Difference - Price situation: The price of Dushanzi BR9000 in the Shandong market was weakly volatile this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The overall supply had limited support, and the trading center was under pressure. The mainstream supply price gradually decreased at the end of the cycle [22]. - Supply and demand indicators: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased by 3.8%, with strong positive effects. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased by 1.6%, with strong positive effects. The all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.1%, with strong positive effects; the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, with weak positive effects. The semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.2%, with weak positive effects; the semi - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, with weak positive effects. The butadiene rubber inventory decreased by 0.08 tons, with weak positive effects; the butadiene port inventory decreased by 0.25 tons, with strong positive effects [22]. RU Contract Inventory - The total inventory of the SHFE RU contract increased to 196,800 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in history. The total inventory of the RU contract was 42,600 tons higher than the inventory futures (warehouse receipts), and it had been significantly higher than the same period last year since May [30]. Mixed Basis and Inventory - Inventory situation: As of September 2025, the NR warehouse receipts had increased for three consecutive months to 49,900 tons. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone had decreased for four consecutive months to 69,300 tons, and the inventory outside the zone had decreased for two consecutive months to 520,200 tons. The total inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 639,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.3% and marginal inventory increase for 11 consecutive months [32]. - Supply and related data: In September, the sum of the inventory outside the zone and the mixed rubber import volume was 8.109 million tons, and the standard rubber import volume was 54,900 tons, with a ratio of 14.76, a year - on - year increase of 61.9% and marginal increase for three consecutive months, which was negative for the mixed basis. In July, the global automobile sales volume decreased to 7.73 million, with marginal increase for six consecutive months. In August, the domestic manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 points, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the preferential quota in the domestic passenger car market decreased to 27,600 yuan/vehicle, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% and marginal decline for three consecutive months [40]. Downstream Consumption - European Automobile Industry - The domestic automobile inventory index increased to 54.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and marginal inventory increase, which was negative for the RU unilateral price. As of September 2025, the European automobile industry index rebounded to - 26.5 points, which was positive for the RU unilateral price [55]. RU Month - Spread - The current fundamentals still support the positive spread logic of the near - month contract strengthening. In August, the domestic capital annualized interest rate was 1.49%, with interest rate cuts for four consecutive months, which led to the narrowing of the September - January spread. In September, the RU warehouse receipts had decreased for five consecutive months to 166,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.5%, with the largest decline since August 2023 and marginal decrease for eight consecutive months, which was positive for the near - end contract [56][61]. Real Estate and RU Price - Policy situation: On September 6, 2025, Shenzhen issued real estate regulation and optimization policies; on September 12, Minister Ni Hong of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development called on state - owned and central enterprises to promote a new real estate development model; on September 12, Henan introduced policies to support housing consumption [66]. - Sales data: In July 2025, the cumulative domestic commercial housing sales area was 516 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9% and marginal increase for 13 consecutive months, which was significantly positive for the RU unilateral price. In August 2025, the weekly average domestic commercial housing transaction area was 6.85 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and marginal increase, which was significantly positive for the RU unilateral price [66].
橡胶板块2025年09月第3周报-20250924
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-24 00:40