五矿期货农产品早报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Protein Meal: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - Oils: The center of the oil market is supported by factors such as low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and expected decline in export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. - Sugar: Affected by factors such as the record - high domestic sugar imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. However, from a technical perspective, there may be a short - term rebound [12]. - Cotton: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the growth of the downstream industrial chain's operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. So, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is bearish. But due to the low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support below, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. - Eggs: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. - Pigs: The current spot price of pigs is showing a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - Market Situation: On Tuesday, US soybeans rebounded weakly. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax is bearish for the international soybean system. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 60 yuan/ton, and the transaction was good with high pick - up volume. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat in Argentina corresponds to approximately 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). The supply of global protein raw materials is in surplus, and Brazil may continue to expand its planting area [3]. - Strategy: In the short - term, there may be a downward trend. In the medium - term, the strategy is to short - sell on rebounds, but the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - Market Situation: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. On September 23, the Malaysian palm oil's offshore price, import arrival price, and import cost price all declined. On Tuesday, the prices of the three major domestic oils dropped significantly [7]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The export of Malaysian palm oil is still weak year - on - year, indicating low import willingness of demand countries or high production in Indonesia. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax on soybean oil is also bearish for international oils in the short - term [7]. - Strategy: In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - Market Situation: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants also declined. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 11.12% year - on - year [11]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The high domestic sugar imports in August and the significant increase in Brazil's sugar production are bearish factors for sugar prices [12]. - Strategy: The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a short - term rebound [12]. Cotton - Market Situation: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The spot price of cotton also declined. As of September 19, the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories showed different trends, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year. As of September 21, the US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased but was still higher than last year [14]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: It is the consumption season, but the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month [15]. - Strategy: The short - term price is bearish, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. Eggs - Market Situation: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few areas seeing price adjustments. The supply was stable, and the overall sales were average [17]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The basic production capacity is still large, but there is room for marginal improvement. The demand has many uncertainties [18]. - Strategy: Wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - Market Situation: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was mainly stable with some areas showing weakness. The supply of pigs was abundant, and the increase in downstream procurement demand was limited [19]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The supply from large - scale farms has recovered more than expected, and the low demand has led to slow sales. There is also panic selling from small farmers [20]. - Strategy: Short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20].