工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to potential supply - side disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market has strengthened recently. Short - term silicon prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts and silicon enterprises increase production [1]. - For polysilicon, supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, and polysilicon prices are consolidating at a high level. Given the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, which may put pressure on the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed 0.28% lower at 8,925 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Some previously - shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production as silicon prices rise. The southwest region has entered the wet season with low electricity costs, and enterprise production is steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some have plans to resume production; the organic silicon market has supply pressure again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. - Export and Import Data: In August 2025, industrial silicon exports were 7.66 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase and an 18% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports were 49.14 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, imports were 0.13 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 0.67 tons, a 67% year - on - year decrease [1]. - Trading Strategy: Use interval operations, continue to hold out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse spreads [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained flat. The futures main contract closed 1.43% lower at 50,260 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some may have new production capacity. The market trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, and price increases are spreading downstream, but terminal demand pressure is high, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - Trading Strategy: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Other Information - Photovoltaic Glass Export: In August 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports were 46.61 tons, an 11.86% increase from July and a 33.74% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, total exports were 298.10 tons, a 16.49% year - on - year increase [1].