国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. All are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations, with trend intensities all at 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][4][7][11][15][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The futures closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (-0.74%). The position decreased by 15,454 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis increased by 6 yuan [4]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: RB2601 futures closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.00%); HC2601 closed at 3,340 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.33%). Rebar position increased by 20,270 hands, while hot - rolled coil decreased by 15,676 hands. Spot prices generally declined [7]. - News: In the September 18 steel weekly data, rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 1.35 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 4.67 tons. In August 2025, national crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: The prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The basis and spread also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - News: On September 23, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also changed. Zhongtian Iron and Steel's ferrosilicon purchase price dropped by 50 yuan/ton [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: JM2601 futures closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and the basis and spread also fluctuated [15]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The prices and trading volumes of different log contracts showed different degrees of change, and the spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable [18]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20].