橡胶：增产潜力最大的地区

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber production in Cote d'Ivoire has significant growth potential in 2025, with an expected increase of 210,000 tons. Nigeria's 160,000 - hectare rubber plantation is projected to yield 200,000 - 300,000 tons of rubber from 2028 - 2032. In the future, Congo, Gabon, and Nigeria may have substantial rubber - planting potential. The decline in rubber prices has mostly released risks, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is gradually emerging. Traders should wait for a suitable upward - driving force to enter long positions [2][32][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cote d'Ivoire - Production Increase Potential: By August 2025, it had a cumulative increase of 130,000 tons, and an expected increase of 210,000 tons in 2025 [2]. - Planting and Production Data: In 2022, the rubber tree planting area was about 700,000 hectares. By 2024, 12,500 hectares of new plantations were built. The 2024 export volume was 1.51 million tons, a 7.7% decrease from 2023. The APROMAC reported 2024 sustainable TSR rubber production of 1.152 million tons, accounting for about 76% of total exports. The estimated 2024 planting area was about 1.22 million hectares, and the tapping area was about 1.09 million hectares [4][8][10]. - Data Discrepancy: The difference between production and export data is due to different statistical calibers. Export data includes raw rubber, cup lump, and processed rubber, while APROMAC's data refers to sustainable TSR rubber [10]. 3.2 Nigeria - Production Capacity Projection: With a 160,000 - hectare planting area, it is expected to form a rubber production capacity of 200,000 - 300,000 tons from 2028 - 2032. The NARPPMAN aims to contribute 12% (1.74 million tons) to global rubber production, though the timeline is undetermined [13][18]. - Industry History: The rubber industry has gone through early wild - collection, commercial - variety introduction, prosperity - decline, and modern - revival stages. In 2024, the output rebounded to 149,000 tons, and it became the second - largest rubber producer in Africa [15][17]. - Production Strategy: Strategies to increase production include expanding planting areas, integrating small - scale farmers through outsourcing, and developing industrial processing and marketing. The association plans to increase regional offices from 18 to 24 [20]. 3.3 Congo Democratic Republic (DRC) - Rainforest and Planting Potential: The DRC's rainforest area accounts for about 60% (222 million hectares) of the Congo Basin's 370 million - hectare rainforest. The potentially suitable area for rubber planting is 30 - 50 million hectares, but the current planting area is only 20,000 - 30,000 hectares [21][22]. - Production: In 2024, the rubber output was about 14,000 tons, accounting for less than 1% of Africa's total output. Rubber is the fourth - largest export cash crop, but processing capacity is weak [23]. 3.4 Congo Republic (ROC) - Rainforest and Planting Potential: The rainforest area is about 21.8 million hectares, accounting for 85% of the country's area. The suitable area for rubber planting is about 10 - 15 million hectares, but the currently developed area is only 100,000 - 200,000 hectares [25]. - Production: In 2024, the rubber output was about 5,000 tons, accounting for less than 1% of Africa's total output. It is mainly exported to the EU and China, with weak processing capacity [26]. 3.5 Gabon - Planting Potential: The forest coverage rate is 88% (about 22 million hectares). The potentially suitable area for rubber planting is about 20 - 22 million hectares, and the speculated potential planting area is 4 - 4.5 million hectares. Currently, the planted area is about 20,000 - 30,000 hectares, and the planned expansion is to 56,900 hectares by 2025, with an expected output of 1,000 - 10,000 tons [27][31]. - Environmental Policies: Gabon emphasizes forest protection and sustainable development. Policies such as the 1993 Environmental Law and forest - management reforms restrict rubber - planting expansion [28]. 3.6 Africa's Overall Rubber - Planting Potential - The theoretically maximum area suitable for rubber planting in Africa is estimated to be 59 million hectares, with a potential of 78 million hectares [33]. 3.7 Views on Rubber Prices - Macro and Industry Perspectives: From a macro perspective, US tariff increases and EU anti - dumping measures on Chinese tires have put pressure on rubber export expectations, but there are also positive policy expectations. From a rubber - industry perspective, the current weather is normal, port inventories are decreasing, and the impact on rubber prices is limited. Terminal demand is weak, and overall demand is sluggish. Seasonal bullish trends usually occur in the third quarter [34]. - Price Outlook: The decline in rubber prices has mostly released risks, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is gradually emerging. Traders should wait for a suitable upward - driving force to enter long positions [36].