冠通期货资讯早间报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and recent trading data of various futures, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and financial market trends across different sectors including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities. It also includes forecasts from international organizations and statements from policymakers. Summary by Categories Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 2.20% at $63.65 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.85% at $67.19 per barrel [3] - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold up 0.58% at $3796.9 per ounce and COMEX silver up 0.12% at $44.265 per ounce [4] - Most London base metals rose, with LME copper up 0.21% at $9993.5 per ton, LME nickel up 0.83% at $15340 per ton, and LME tin up 0.74% at $34270 per ton [4] - As of 23:00, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with fuel oil up over 3%, while some contracts like rapeseed meal and caustic soda fell over 1% [4] - As of 2:20, US agricultural products showed mixed performance, with soybeans up 0.15%, corn up 0.95%, and wheat up 1.96%, while soybean meal down 1.11% [5] Important Information - Macro - OECD expects the Fed to cut key interest rates in 2025 and twice in early 2026, and forecasts US economic growth to slow to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 [8] - China's National Energy Administration reported that August's total social electricity consumption was 1015.4 billion kWh, up 5.0% year - on - year [8] - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, new emerging pillar industries will be developed [8] - Fed Governor Bowman expects three interest rate cuts in 2025 [9] - UN report shows Israel's intention to establish permanent control in the Gaza Strip [10] - Fed Chair Powell said the policy rate is slightly restrictive and may open space for further rate cuts [10] Important Information - Energy Futures - Since September 9, 2025, the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has been suspended as the cumulative adjustment amount per ton is less than 50 yuan [14] - As of September 22, Daqing Oilfield's natural gas production in the Sichuan - Chongqing exploration area exceeded 4 billion cubic meters, with a daily production capacity of over 4.5 million cubic meters [14] - US President Trump called for anti - Russian oil measures and threatened to impose tariffs [14] Important Information - Metal Futures - The first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation, with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate processing and 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate production [16] - In September, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline slightly, and in October, there is a production cut expectation in Sichuan [17] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will adjust the margin ratio and price limit of gold and silver contracts from September 26 [19] - Guangxi plans to develop a high - quality development plan for the non - ferrous metal industry and establish a state - owned enterprise group [19] - As of September 22, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased by 8,500 tons compared to September 18 [19] - Hudbay Mining suspended the operation of its copper smelter in Peru due to political protests [20] Important Information - Black Futures - Indonesia suspended 190 coal and mining licenses for non - compliance [22] - As of September 23, the average daily customs clearance of three Mongolian coal ports increased by 5.90% month - on - month, and the 7 - day closure during the holidays will affect imports by about 1875600 tons [22][23] - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan purchased 7000 tons of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at a price 40 yuan/ton higher than the previous bid [24] Important Information - Agricultural Futures - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 24,000 tons week - on - week [26] - Pakistani importers bought about 180,000 tons of soybeans from the US in September [26] - As of September 23, the price of Malaysian palm oil reached a nearly one - and - a - half - month low, with negative import profit [26] - In September, China's soybean imports remained high, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to rise to over 1.25 million tons by the end of September [27] - As of September 20, Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 0.6% [29] - StoneX forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 sugar production in the central - southern region to reach 42.1 million tons, up 5.7% [30] - India's 2025/26 monsoon - season grain output is expected to exceed the target [30] Financial Market - Stocks - A - shares fluctuated widely, with bank stocks stabilizing the market and semiconductor equipment concepts rising at the end of the session; the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% [32][33] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, and the southbound capital net sold HK$4.069 billion [33] - Since the release of the "Six M&A Rules" by the CSRC, over 2800 A - share companies have disclosed M&A matters, with a significant increase in new - quality productivity sectors [33] - Avita Technology plans to submit a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Q4 this year [33] Financial Market - Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will formulate a development plan for intelligent and connected new - energy vehicles and implement relevant pilot projects [34] - The market supervision department will rectify live - streaming e - commerce chaos and issue a supervision and management method [34] - Domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended for the sixth time this year [34] - From January to August, China's telecom business revenue reached 1.1821 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year [36] Financial Market - Overseas - OECD raises the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% [37] - Multiple Fed officials support using an inflation target range [37] - The US current account deficit in Q2 decreased by $188.5 billion [37] - The US will adjust the H - 1B visa application process [38] - The US September manufacturing and service PMI showed mixed performance [40] - The eurozone September manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line [40] - Indonesia and the EU signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement [40] - Argentina temporarily取消 agricultural export withholding taxes [40] - India's September manufacturing and service PMI declined [41] - The UK September manufacturing and service PMI slowed down [42] - The Bank of England should accelerate balance - sheet reduction [43] - The Swedish central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [44] Financial Market - International Stocks - US stocks fell, with major indices like the Dow Jones down 0.19% [46] - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX up 0.36% [46] - The US IPO market in September is the busiest since 2021 [46] Financial Market - Commodities - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit of gold and silver contracts [47] - International oil prices rose, supported by inventory decline and supply concerns [47] - International precious metal prices rose due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations [47] - Most London base metals rose as the US dollar index fell slightly [49] Financial Market - Bonds - Bank - to - bank bond yields generally rose, and the 30 - year Treasury futures fell 0.67% [50] - Shenzhen issued 4 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Hong Kong [50] - Vanke is negotiating to lower the interest rate of non - public debt [50] - US Treasury yields fell due to dovish remarks and economic data [51] - US municipal bond funds attracted about $2.4 billion in the week ending September 10 [53] Financial Market - Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 15 basis points at the 16:30 close [54] - The Thai central bank took measures to stabilize the Thai baht [54] - The US dollar index fell 0.08%, and most non - US currencies rose [54]