尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned urea plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 23, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1658 yuan/ton, 1713 yuan/ton, and 1734 yuan/ton respectively. The UR01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) compared to September 22, while UR05 and UR09 remained unchanged. Among domestic spot prices, prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, 0.60%, and 0.61% respectively, while prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 103 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton, 880 yuan/ton, and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan and Shandong remained unchanged at 2520 yuan/ton and 2930 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5017 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1664 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1658 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1658 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]