棉花：关注籽棉成交价格

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, tracking its fundamentals, including futures and spot prices, and analyzing industry news. The overall market shows a complex situation with factors such as limited spot trading, stable seed - cotton purchase prices, and limited sales volume in the cotton - textile market [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,540 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.51% daily increase, and 13,580 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.30% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,660 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.08% increase, and 19,765 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.53% increase. ICE cotton 12 closed at 66.61 cents/pound with a 0.54% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 325,107 lots, a decrease of 104,804 lots from the previous day, and the position was 753,685 lots, an increase of 16,137 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 9,857 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 14,281 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,915, a decrease of 181 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 12 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0 with no change [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or - 0.47% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or - 0.48% from the previous day. The price of cotton in Shandong was 15,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan or - 0.71% from the previous day. The price of cotton in Hebei was 15,153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan or - 0.31% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91 yuan or - 0.60% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.75 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents or - 0.15% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or - 0.43% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,432 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with limited inventory and few market offers. The sales basis of most spot goods remained stable. The purchase price of seed cotton was stable. The price of hand - picked cotton with about 39 - 40% lint percentage and less than 12% moisture in Xinjiang was 7.15 - 7.35 yuan/kg, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg. There were different basis quotes for different cotton types in different regions [2]. - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: The overall trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market was limited. The high - end quotes of pure - cotton yarn decreased, and the actual trading center moved down slightly. Spinning mills mainly sold goods at a discount. The sales of the all - cotton grey fabric market were not as good as before, and the fabric prices were mostly negotiable. Most weaving factories said it was difficult to make a profit recently. Small and medium - sized weaving factories had poor orders and planned to have a holiday during the National Day [2]. - US Cotton Situation: ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly yesterday, and its recent trend was affected by the trend of crude oil [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].