烧碱：弱现实压制

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently under pressure from weak reality, with the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price remaining under pressure. However, the optimistic expectations brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to the interweaving of long and short expectations [3] - The caustic soda futures market may experience low - level oscillations in the short term due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers. Before the alumina starts stocking for production, the market is still trading based on the weak reality [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On September 24, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2535, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 780, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 98 [1] Spot News - As of September 23, the low - concentration caustic soda market in Shandong was locally weak and stable. Under the resistance of high - price downstream buyers, some enterprises faced inventory pressure, and the key this week was for enterprises to reduce inventory in preparation for the holiday. Some downstream buyers started to plan for restocking as the current low prices were close to the cost line. High - concentration caustic soda rebounded temporarily due to short - term order support [2] Market Condition Analysis - The Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price is under pressure, but the short - term decline space may be limited due to the support of 50% caustic soda. The futures market may experience low - level oscillations due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers [3] - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has continuously compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a stocking demand for 5.6 million tons of new alumina production capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may also lead to a decline in the stocking levels of other alumina plants [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [5]