沥青：山东厂库承压，华东出货走稳

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows mixed trends with production increasing, factory - warehouse inventory rising in some areas and social - warehouse inventory decreasing in others [13] - The asphalt price follows the oil price in a range - bound pattern, and regional spot price differences fluctuate downward [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,373 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.82%, and the night - session closing price was 3,399 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. The trading volume was 182,087 lots with an increase of 14,686 lots, and the open interest was 231,822 lots with a decrease of 4,519 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,320 yuan/ton with a 0.95% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,347 yuan/ton with an 0.81% increase. The trading volume was 55,821 lots with an increase of 16,504 lots, and the open interest was 92,377 lots with an increase of 7,166 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 58,120 lots with a decrease of 1,260 lots [1] - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 137 yuan/ton with a 28 - yuan increase from the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 53 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase. The Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [1] - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,510 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease. As of September 22, the refinery operating rate was 47.22%, up 4.63% from September 18, and the refinery inventory rate was 26.74%, up 0.50% from September 18 [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend (the range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish) [8] 3. Market Information - Production: From September 16 - 22, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 687,000 tons, a 10.1% increase from the previous week and a 41.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to September was 22.837 million tons, a 12.3% increase year - on - year [13] - Factory - Warehouse Inventory: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 698,000 tons, a 2.8% increase from September 18. The factory warehouses in Shandong had obvious inventory accumulation due to increased supply and affected by rainfall and weak terminal demand [13] - Social - Warehouse Inventory: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.57 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from September 18. The social warehouses in the Northeast and Southwest regions had obvious destocking. In the Northeast, it was due to the shortened terminal construction period and downstream rush - work demand, and in the Southwest, it was due to the sales of low - price goods [13]