碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20250924

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - On September 23, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. In the spot market, low - price transactions were acceptable, and the basis premium decreased. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite remained flat on the cost side. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials also increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate increased, while the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In the terminal market, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and social inventory decreased. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, the inventory pressure of upstream is not large, and the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking cycle and the deadline for Jiangxi's mining end to submit reserve reports. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Data - Futures Market: On September 23, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 497,857 hands (+101,212), and the open interest was 255,907 hands (-15,717). The inventory was 39,449 tons (+540). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) decreased by 240 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Market: The average prices of various lithium products such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide remained mostly unchanged, while the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 57,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased [1]. - Inventory: The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons last week. The inventory of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory increased [1]. Industry News - Chile: Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to extend the contract of the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA until 2030 and a new mineral lease contract with Codelco and Minera Tarapacá SoA from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Flat in northern Chile this year, marking the first large - scale entry into lithium production in the region [1]. - China: On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Tuhai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in Xinjiang. The project has a total investment of 4.6 billion yuan, and after full - scale production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate and produce 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [1].