创新药2025H1业绩综述：看好盈利改善，估值突破

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Positive [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strong performance of stock prices and the improvement in profitability within the innovative drug sector [3] - The valuation is expected to break through due to the "engineer dividend" and continuous high-intensity R&D investment [4][5] Summary by Sections Review: Strong Stock Prices and Profitability Improvement - Stock prices have shown a strong upward trend, driven by business development (BD) and clinical data [12] - A-share performance from December 31, 2024, to September 8, 2025, shows significant gains for companies like Rongchang Bio (+208.87%) and Yifang Bio (+188.72%) [5][16] - R&D investment among 32 sample innovative drug companies reached 33.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.91% [21] - Sales and R&D expense ratios for 21 sample companies have been declining from 2021 to H1 2025, indicating a trend towards profitability [27] - The sales revenue of 17 commercialized innovative drug companies reached 56.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 30% increase year-on-year [31] Outlook: Valuation Breakthrough Under Engineer Dividend - Domestic policies are driving the industry upward, with continuous implementation of supportive measures for innovative drug development [38] - The report notes that the value of Chinese innovative drugs is increasingly recognized by multinational corporations (MNCs), enhancing their international competitiveness [41] - The report anticipates a significant increase in the number of approved innovative drugs, with 44 new Class 1 innovative drugs approved by CDE by September 15, 2025 [48] Investment Strategy: Positive Profitability Improvement and Valuation Breakthrough - The report recommends focusing on global blockbuster potentials, with Zebutini expected to exceed $2.6 billion in sales in 2024 [52] - Companies such as Kelun Biotech, Innovent Biologics, and others are highlighted as key investment targets due to their strong growth potential [52] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of profitability improvement, with companies like BeiGene expected to turn profitable in 2025 [52]