铅锌日评20250924：震荡整理-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Lead: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate increased. The supply of lead is expected to be tightened in the short - term, with the production of primary lead fluctuating slightly and the production of recycled lead decreasing. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. - Zinc: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate decreased slightly compared to July but increased year - on - year. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 100.07% to 48,758 lots, and the open interest increased by 133.09% to 63,941 lots. The LME inventory was 219,975 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.19% to 41,610 tons [1]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.23% and a year - on - year increase of 15.22%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 reached 927,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 28.18%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in August was 18.1577 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.14%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 152 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [1]. - Fundamentals and Outlook: The supply of lead concentrate is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly, and the production of recycled lead decreases. Demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. Short - term lead prices are expected to remain high, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,810 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.81% to 125,331 lots, and the open interest increased by 7.63% to 140,372 lots. The LME inventory was 45,775 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.83% to 56,613 tons [1]. - Import and Project News: In August 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 30.06%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. The Baijiuchang Mine of Shandong Zhaojin Group and Mengzi Mining Company resumed production, with an expected output of 250,000 - 300,000 tons in the second half of the year and an increase in comprehensive output value of 25% [1]. - Fundamentals and Outlook: The raw material inventory of zinc smelters is sufficient, and processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, and demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure of LME 0 - 3 provide strong support for zinc prices. The short - term downside space of Shanghai zinc may be limited [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - Lead: Temporarily hold off on trading [1]. - Zinc: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].