Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the stock index, after continuous previous rises, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence recently. There is a short - term adjustment pressure on the index due to capital rotation and shrinking trading volume. However, in the long - term, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected weakening of the export pull, along with the central bank's maintenance of loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention [8]. - For precious metals, after the September interest - rate cut, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures makes the market expect further interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals are affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy. Although short - term sentiment may be affected, with the approach of the National Day holiday, downstream demand is expected to increase, providing support for metal prices. Different metals have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding strategies are formulated accordingly [13][15][17][19][20][22][24][26][28][30]. - In the black building materials sector, the steel market is affected by factors such as weak demand and narrowing steel mill profits, and there is a risk of price decline. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and the glass and soda ash markets are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets may have a short - term downward callback risk but may have multi - allocation value in the future. Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [34][36][37][40][42][43][47][49]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish and short - term neutral or slightly bullish; crude oil is recommended to be long - term multi - allocated; methanol and urea are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to go long on dips; PVC and ethylene glycol are recommended to go short on rallies; PTA and p - xylene are recommended to be observed [53][56][58][60][62][64][66][69][71]. - In the agricultural products sector, the pig price is expected to be stable or decline, and it is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage. The egg price is expected to be stable, and it is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The oil market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization. The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term but may have a short - term rebound. The cotton market is recommended to be observed in the short term [79][81][84][86][88][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial - Stock Index - Market Information: The arrival of the central delegation in Xinjiang, the new high of spot gold prices, the continuous capital inflow of KWEB, and the suspension of trading of Tianpu Co., Ltd. for verification [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - Strategy: Short - term adjustment pressure exists, but long - term long - on - dips strategy is recommended [4]. - National Debt - Market Information: The decline of main contracts on Tuesday, the release of August's power consumption data, and the reduction of the US current - account deficit [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 2761 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan [6][7]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term [8]. - Precious Metals - Market Information: The price changes of domestic and foreign gold and silver, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures [9]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper - Market Information: The slight decline of LME copper, the reduction of LME and SHFE copper inventories, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference [11]. - Strategy: The short - term price may oscillate and rise [13]. - Aluminum - Market Information: The decline of LME aluminum, the reduction of SHFE aluminum positions and inventories, and the change of the spot - futures basis [14]. - Strategy: The short - term price may repair upwards [15]. - Zinc - Market Information: The decline of the zinc index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [16]. - Strategy: The short - term price is expected to be weak [17]. - Lead - Market Information: The decline of the lead index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [18]. - Strategy: The short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. - Nickel - Market Information: The oscillatory operation of nickel prices, the stable cost of nickel ore and nickel iron, and the increase of MHP prices [20]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term, and the short - term price is expected to operate within a certain range [20]. - Tin - Market Information: The decline of the tin contract, the increase of registered warehouse receipts, and the decline of tin concentrate prices [21]. - Strategy: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe [22]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The stable spot price and the increase of the futures contract price [23]. - Strategy: The price has a strong bottom support, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand and market sentiment [24]. - Alumina - Market Information: The decline of the alumina index, the change of positions, and the opening of the import window [25]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe and wait for macro - sentiment resonance [26]. - Stainless Steel - Market Information: The decline of the stainless - steel contract, the stable spot price, and the reduction of social inventories [27]. - Strategy: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [28]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The decline of the AD2511 contract, the change of positions and inventories, and the stable average price [29]. - Strategy: The price is under pressure above and supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. 3.3 Black Building Materials - Steel - Market Information: The decline of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices, the change of registered warehouse receipts and positions, and the decline of spot prices [32]. - Strategy: There is a risk of price decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired [34]. - Iron Ore - Market Information: The decline of the iron - ore contract, the change of positions, and the calculation of the basis [35]. - Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery and de - stocking speed [36]. - Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The decline of glass and soda - ash futures prices, the change of inventories and positions [37][39]. - Strategy: Both are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out [37][40]. - Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron - Market Information: The rise of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices, and the stable spot prices [41]. - Strategy: There may be a short - term downward callback risk, but multi - allocation value may appear in the future [42][43]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The decline of industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices, and the change of positions and inventories [46][48]. - Strategy: Both are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical - Rubber - Market Information: The impact of typhoon "Huajiacha", the different views of bulls and bears, and the change of tire - enterprise operating rates and inventories [51][52][53]. - Strategy: Long - term bullish, short - term neutral or slightly bullish [53]. - Crude Oil - Market Information: The decline of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices, and the de - stocking of refined - oil products in Fujeirah Port [54]. - Strategy: It is recommended to multi - allocate [56]. - Methanol - Market Information: The change of methanol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [57]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe [58]. - Urea - Market Information: The decline of urea prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [59]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe or go long on dips [60]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The change of pure - benzene and styrene prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [61]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips [62]. - PVC - Market Information: The decline of PVC prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [63]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. - Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The decline of ethylene - glycol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [65]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of non - fulfillment of weak expectations [66]. - PTA - Market Information: The decline of PTA prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [67]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe [69]. - p - Xylene - Market Information: The decline of p - xylene prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [70]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the recovery of the terminal and PTA valuations [71]. - Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The decline of PE futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [72]. - Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the long - term [73]. - Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The decline of PP futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [74]. - Strategy: There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [75]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Pig - Market Information: The stable or declining pig prices in different regions, and the abundant supply and limited demand [78]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [79]. - Egg - Market Information: The stable egg prices, and the stable supply and general demand [80]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline [81]. - Soybean Meal - Market Information: The weak rebound of US soybeans, the cancellation of Argentina's export tax, and the change of domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories [82]. - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [84]. - Oil - Market Information: The change of palm - oil export and production in Malaysia, the decline of domestic oil prices, and the stable spot basis [85]. - Strategy: It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization [86]. - Sugar - Market Information: The decline of sugar futures and spot prices, and the decrease of Brazil's sugar exports [87]. - Strategy: Bearish in the long - term, but may have a short - term rebound [88]. - Cotton - Market Information: The decline of cotton futures and spot prices, the change of downstream operating rates and inventories, and the high - quality rate of US cotton [90]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe in the short term [91].
文字早评2025/09/24星期三：宏观金融类-20250924
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-24 01:50