南华豆产业风险管理日报：南华豆-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - New grain seasonal supply is loose, putting pressure on spot prices; short - term supply is limited but expectations are weak, and the enthusiasm of middle and downstream buyers to enter the market is limited; the soybean No.1 futures have broken through the downward trend again, with active contracts increasing positions and trading volume; the resumption of auctions has increased market supply pressure [3] - The approaching of double festivals may delay the price decline; the National Food and Material Reserves Administration emphasizes the importance of autumn grain procurement and project construction [3] - The resumption of the domestic soybean auction on September 26, 2025, with a sales volume of 19,349 tons, increases the pressure on the spot market [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No.1 11 - contract in the monthly period is 3850 - 4000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a current volatility historical percentile of 31.4% [2] 2. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new beans after autumn harvest and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the soybean No.1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4000 - 4050 [2] - When there is a concentrated listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio and an entry range of 30 - 50 to increase the grain - selling price [2] Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605 and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [2] 3. Market Price Changes - From September 22 to September 23, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No.1 contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) all declined, with daily declines ranging from 22 to 36 and daily decline rates ranging from 0.56% to 0.92% [3][7]