需求疲弱，成本支撑，纸价低位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of double - offset paper and coated paper remains with oversupply, and the price of paper is oscillating at a low level. The cost support is limited, and the recommendation is to short the 01 contract of double - offset paper when the price is high, while staying on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: The average tax - included price of 70g double - offset paper is 4742.9 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The production of double - offset paper is 20.9 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons or 2.0% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.7%, up 1.0%. The demand is weak, and the downstream consumption lacks impetus. The average tax - included spot price of softwood pulp is 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from the previous period, and that of hardwood pulp is 4191 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [6] - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short the 01 contract when the price is high as the oversupply pattern remains. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [8][9] Part 2: Core Logic Analysis - Supply Side: Some previously shut - down enterprises are resuming production, but the profitability of the industry is under pressure, and individual production lines may have maintenance plans. The supply of the double - offset paper industry is expected to increase, but the increment is limited [7] - Demand Side: There is little support from the rigid demand for teaching materials, and social orders are mainly for rigid procurement [7] - Cost Side: The prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp are moving sideways, providing limited cost support [7] Part 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Double - Offset Paper Supply: The production of double - offset paper increased slightly this period, with a production of 20.9 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons or 2.0% from the previous period, and a capacity utilization rate of 56.7%, up 1.0%. The profit margin continued to decline [17] - Double - Offset Paper Inventory: The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises is 122.7 tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous period. The on - site inventory is rebounding slightly and is at a high level in recent years [21] - Coated Paper Supply: The production of coated paper is 8.3 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons or 6.4% from the previous period, and a capacity utilization rate of 61.4%, up 3.8%. The profit margin is still low [24] - Coated Paper Inventory: The inventory of coated paper production enterprises is 33.9 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous period. The on - site inventory of coated paper is rebounding slightly [28] - Paper Prices: The average price of double - offset paper enterprises is weakly sorted, with the tax - included average price of 70g double - offset paper at 4742.9 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The average price of coated paper enterprises decreased, with the tax - included average price of 157g coated paper at 5175.0 yuan/ton, remaining flat [39] - Pulp Prices: The average tax - included spot price of softwood pulp is 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from the previous period; that of hardwood pulp is 4191 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; that of unbleached pulp is 4900 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The average tax - included spot price of chemimechanical pulp is 3700 yuan/ton, remaining flat [44][45]