Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, buy on dips for glass [1][8][10] - Non - ferrous Metals: Wait - and - see or buy on dips for copper, suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum, suggest waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][18][19] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash [1][23][34] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly, apples are expected to oscillate strongly, and jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][36][37] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs, wide - range oscillation for corn, range oscillation for soybean meal, and oscillation with an upward bias for oils [1][39][46][53] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic conditions, policy changes, and seasonal factors. Overall, the market for different futures products shows a complex situation with both opportunities and risks, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product characteristics and market trends [1][5][8] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish on the medium to long - term, buy on dips. Affected by pre - holiday capital demands, A - shares fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed slight declines, while the ChiNext Index rose. Pay attention to whether the micro - cap stock index can regain stability on the 20 - day line [5] - Treasury Bonds: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. The bond market had a slight pullback. Open - market operations affected liquidity expectations, and the future trend of treasury bond futures needs further observation [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating. Multiple factors drove up market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board, including pit - mouth, port, and purchased coal prices [8] - Rebar: Oscillating. The futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The market sentiment weakened slightly, and the short - term focus is on the demand in October [8] - Glass: Buy on dips. The fundamentals of glass are stable. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has a certain degree of support. The market is speculating on supply - side shutdown expectations and seasonal and macro - economic factors [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. The price of copper fluctuated after a rapid rise. The high price suppressed demand, and the market is affected by factors such as Fed's interest - rate policy, domestic economic data, and seasonal consumption [12][13] - Aluminum: Neutral. The price of aluminum showed a neutral trend. The price of bauxite decreased slightly, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The demand entered the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13] - Nickel: Neutral. The fundamentals of nickel changed little in the short - term, affected by macro and mine - end news. In the long - term, the supply is in surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [18] - Tin: Neutral. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is picking up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19] - Silver and Gold: Neutral. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, precious metals showed a strong - side oscillation. Affected by US economic data and trade negotiations, it is recommended to conduct range trading [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [23] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating. The upstream inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. It is expected to oscillate before the National Day [26] - Styrene: Oscillating. The cost is affected by oil prices and pure - benzene supply, and the demand is limited during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27] - Rubber: Oscillating. Affected by typhoons and weak overseas buying, the raw - material price has limited upward momentum. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the price is expected to decline [29][30] - Urea: Oscillating. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the compound - fertilizer market has slightly improved. The inventory has been accumulating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [30] - Methanol: Oscillating. The supply in the mainland has recovered, the traditional demand is stable, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins has declined. The port inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [31] - Polyolefins: Oscillating. The downstream demand has improved during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has been decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [32] - Soda Ash: Short 01 and go long on 05 for arbitrage. The downstream pre - holiday replenishment is active, but the production has increased. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to conduct the arbitrage strategy [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating. The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - PTA: Oscillating weakly. Affected by concerns about OPEC+ production increases, the oil price has declined. The supply and demand are in a state of accumulation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36][37] - Apples: Oscillating strongly. Affected by weather conditions, the price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - Jujubes: Oscillating weakly. The consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level, with an expected weak - side oscillation [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: Under pressure. Affected by factors such as supply increases and policy support, the short - term price may have a limited rebound, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [39][40] - Eggs: Resistance to rebound. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [42] - Corn: Range - oscillating. The new - crop supply will ease the tight supply of old - crop corn. It is recommended to take a short - side approach for the 11 contract and pay attention to the new - crop listing rhythm [45] - Soybean Meal: Weakly oscillating. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the price is under pressure in the short - term, but there is cost support. The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is expected to be weak [46][48] - Oils: Adjusting. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the oil price has回调. However, there is still support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [53]
期货市场交易指引：2025年09月24日-20250924
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-24 02:14