Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended, and the average price of Brent and SC is expected to decline. It is advisable to continue holding the strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options [2]. - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and black series, as well as energy and chemical products and agricultural products, different trends and investment suggestions are presented according to their respective supply - demand situations, policies, and geopolitical factors [4][5][6] and so on. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy Products - Crude Oil: The overnight international oil price rebounded. The mid - term bearish trend persists, with the estimated average price of Brent dropping from $68/barrel in Q3 to $63/barrel, and SC from 500 yuan/barrel to around 465 yuan/barrel. Hold the combined strategy of high - level short positions and call options [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: FU and LU mainly follow the crude oil trend. Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [20]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Crude oil leads the decline in oil futures, and LPG slightly follows. Supply - demand shows marginal improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [22]. - Asphalt: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The overall inventory decreased. The futures price oscillates with support below [21]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. The upward trend remains, but short - term fluctuations may increase [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, copper prices oscillated. Domestic spot copper prices were reported, and it is advisable to wait and see due to concerns about consumption indicators and inventory [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Downstream start - up increased seasonally, but inventory has not yet shown a turning point. Observe whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [5]. - Alumina: The operating capacity reached a record high, and the inventory continued to rise. The price is expected to run weakly, with support at around 2800 yuan [6]. - Zinc: The export expectation strengthened, and the import loss narrowed. Consumption was weak in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation expectation increased. The lower support is at 21,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Lead: The profit of recycled lead repaired, and the supply - demand was weak. The price is expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly and is about to start a downward trend. Stainless steel has cost support due to pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. - Tin: Overnight, London tin rose at the key support level. The price is difficult to show a trend in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. - Black Metals - Iron Ore: The supply decreased from the high level, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [15]. - Coke: The first round of price increase was partially implemented. The price is relatively firm, and it is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - Coking Coal: The price oscillated. With pre - holiday stocking sentiment and sufficient carbon supply, the price is relatively firm, and the futures price shows a premium. It is recommended to try long at low prices [16]. - Manganese Silicon: The price oscillated. With increasing demand and production, it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [17]. - Silicon Iron: The price oscillated. The demand was okay, and it is recommended to go long at low prices under the "anti - involution" background [18]. - Steel (Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil): The steel price oscillated weakly at night. The demand for rebar improved slightly, while that for hot - rolled coil declined. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Chemical Products - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price oscillated. The policy - driven capacity clearance is in progress. The short - term price may correct, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity of low - level repair after the correction [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [13]. - Urea: The main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The supply exceeded demand, and the price may continue to run at a low level in the short term [23]. - Methanol: The night - session price stabilized and rebounded. The port demand strengthened, but high inventory and accumulation expectations restricted the upward space. Pay attention to overseas gas - limiting situations [24]. - Pure Benzene: The price stopped falling and rebounded. The actual fundamentals were okay, but the import expectation and poor downstream profits dragged down the market [25]. - Styrene: The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase. The supply increase is greater than the demand increase, and the price trend is weak [26]. - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC may oscillate weakly due to high supply and inventory pressure. Caustic soda futures price dropped sharply, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - PX & PTA: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakened, and the PTA processing margin and basis improved slightly. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory relief [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price continued to fall. The actual supply pressure was not large, but the expectation was weak. Pay attention to inventory and new - device variables [30]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip: The short - fiber industry is expected to be boosted, and the processing margin continued to repair. The bottle - grade chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [31]. - Glass: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price fell from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see before the festival and look for low - long opportunities near the cost [32]. - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber: The demand was stable. The supply of natural rubber increased while the inventory decreased, and that of synthetic rubber decreased with inventory decline. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [33]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand surplus pattern remained unchanged. The price fell. Look for high - short opportunities and be cautious near the cost [34]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The short - term market is bearish due to Argentina's export policy. Wait and see in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The supply of domestic soybeans in Q1 2026 is expected to be sufficient. Domestic oils are expected to be stronger than meals, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The US soybean market may be under pressure [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil is expected to be stronger than other oils. Rapeseed meal demand is expected to be average [37]. - Soybean No.1: The domestic soybean price reached a new low. The supply is expected to be good. The price of US soybeans may face downward pressure [38]. - Corn: The futures price oscillated weakly at night. The new - season output is expected to be good, but the price may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [39]. - Live Pig: The futures price of live pigs reached a new low. The supply pressure is large, and the price is bearish [40]. - Egg: The near - term contract should focus on short - position exit, and the far - term contract in H1 2026 can be considered for long - position layout [41]. - Cotton: The US cotton price rebounded and oscillated. The domestic new - cotton acquisition is about to start. The Xinjiang cotton output is likely to be high. Wait and see for now [42]. - Sugar: The US sugar oscillated. The domestic market focuses on the next - season output estimate, and the Guangxi output expectation is relatively good [43]. - Apple: The futures price oscillated. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline [44]. - Timber: The price oscillated. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Wait and see for now [45]. - Pulp: The futures price oscillated at a low level. The inventory is high, and the supply is relatively loose. Wait and see or trade in the range [46]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and moderately allocate to cyclical sectors. Also, seize the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [46]. - Treasury Bond: The futures price of treasury bonds fell across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].
国投期货综合晨报-20250924
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-24 02:15