宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年9月24日）-20250924

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday bias towards a strong oscillation. Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a medium - term oscillation and an intraday bias towards a strong oscillation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: This week, Shanghai gold increased in price with increasing positions. The main contract price rose nearly 30 yuan/gram, reaching the 860 - yuan mark, corresponding to New York gold reaching 3800 US dollars and London gold standing above 3750 US dollars [3]. - Driving Factors: The main driving factor is the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell showed a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price started to rise. Technically, the gold price broke through the oscillation range since the second quarter, with strong upward momentum. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the liquidation of long positions ended last Friday, the US dollar index declined, and the gold price broke through the previous high, showing a short - term accelerating upward trend. The medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3]. - Viewpoint: Long - term strong, short - term and medium - term upward, intraday oscillation with a strong bias. Short - term support can be observed at the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [1][3]. Copper - Price Performance: Yesterday, the copper price oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan level, and the night - session oscillation continued with a narrowing amplitude, and the trading volume changed little [5]. - Driving Factors: Macroscopically, after the Fed's interest rate cut, gold and silver resumed their upward trends, which is expected to drive up the copper price. Industrially, the copper price dropped from a high level and it is the industrial peak season, so the downstream replenishment willingness increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Short - term macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the pre - holiday replenishment willingness in the industry is strong [5]. - Viewpoint: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillation, intraday oscillation with a strong bias. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [1][5].