宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年9月24日）-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The reference view for TL2512 is to oscillate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillation, oscillation, and weakly oscillating respectively. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term interest rate cut expectation has subsided due to the central bank governor's statement and the unchanged September LPR. However, in the long - run, due to insufficient domestic effective demand and reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure from the Fed's rate cut, the possibility of a loose monetary policy is high, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. In the short - term, with the reduced interest rate cut expectation, treasury bond futures lack upward momentum and are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is the co - existence of long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations and the low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term interest rate cut expectation has faded because the central bank governor said there would be no short - term policy at the National New Conference on Monday and the September LPR remained unchanged. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic effective demand and reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure from the Fed's rate cut, the future monetary policy is likely to be loose, strongly supporting treasury bond futures. But in the short - term, with the decreased interest rate cut expectation, treasury bond futures lack upward momentum and are expected to oscillate at a low level [5].