Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to Trump's attitude change on the Russia - Ukraine issue, unclear US economic prospects, large - scale gold purchases by global gold ETF funds, and multiple new highs of gold prices. The medium - and long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, and it has strategic allocation value [1]. - Silver is expected to rise strongly. It follows the upward trend of gold, with strong global policy stimulus and firm demand, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap. However, the fluctuations of gold and other varieties will impact the silver market [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions before the National Day holiday due to the approaching holiday and the fermentation of risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, copper is still favored [1]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to take profit on short positions before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, zinc has an increasing supply and decreasing demand, and is a short - side configuration in the sector [1]. - Lead is under pressure to rebound as domestic lead - producing enterprises resume production, while the expected consumption peak is still in doubt [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production stoppages in the domestic supply, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure. There is an expected decrease in the arrival of bauxite from Guinea, and the destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is not smooth [1]. - Nickel is expected to rebound. There are disturbances in the overseas Indonesian nickel ore end, and there is a certain peak - season consumption expectation in the downstream stainless - steel terminal field [1]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Supply decreases month - on - month while polycrystalline output increases slightly, and the inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The production schedule in September is basically the same as that in August, and the downstream silicon - wafer demand shows certain resilience [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Due to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation and unclear US economic prospects, gold prices have risen significantly [2]. - Basic Logic: Trump's change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, unclear US economic prospects, continuous inflow of funds (the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust has reached the highest level since August 2022), and in the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold can be bought both in the short - and long - term, with short - term support at 8400. Silver has support around 9800, but position and rhythm need to be considered when buying. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, closing with a doji [6]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decrease in September [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions of copper and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, copper is favored due to its strategic importance and the tight supply of copper concentrates. Shanghai copper is recommended to focus on the range of [78500, 81500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [9850, 10500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [9]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. In August, imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Inventory shows different trends at home and abroad, and demand is affected by the typhoon [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Shanghai zinc is recommended to focus on the range of [21800, 22200] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on the range of [2850, 2950] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises has a slight increase. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply pressure increases [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel showed a rebound trend [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. In the domestic nickel industry chain, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. For stainless steel, there is still an expectation of a consumption peak season, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened low and fluctuated widely during the session, and closed slightly lower [20]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of lithium carbonate has not significantly shrunk, and the demand side has released a lot of positive news. The total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73000 - 74500] yuan/ton [22].
中辉有色观点-20250924
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-24 02:15