国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250924

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term trends and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Overall, different futures have different trends, such as some being in a short - term rebound but medium - term weak situation, some in a long - term supply - pressure situation, and some in a short - term or medium - term oscillating state [2][10][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - Market Performance: PX, PTA, and MEG prices showed declines. PX主力昨日收盘价6530, down 0.94%; PTA主力4556, down 0.65%; MEG主力4212, down 0.66% [5]. - Market Dynamics: Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical factors. PX prices fell on September 23, and Asian PX market sentiment and buying interest weakened. PTA spot prices dropped, and MEG prices had certain fluctuations, with some areas having specific transaction price ranges [6][9]. - Trend and Suggestion: PX has short - term cost support and may rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak. PTA has short - term cost support but a weak medium - term trend. MEG has large supply pressure throughout the year, with a short - term and medium - term bearish trend. Suggestions include holding short positions for PX and MEG and conducting 1 - 5 reverse spreads for PX and PTA [10][11]. 2. Rubber - Market Performance: Rubber showed an oscillating operation. The main contract had small price fluctuations, with the day - session closing price at 15,525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, and the night - session closing price at 15,605 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [14]. - Industry News: In August 2025, China's small - passenger - car tire exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Most regions' export volumes showed a month - on - month decline, but the exports to the EU still ranked first, and the exports to some Asian regions increased [16]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: Synthetic rubber showed short - term oscillating operation. The main contract's day - session closing price was 11,430 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The spot prices of some products, such as cis - butadiene rubber, decreased slightly [18]. - Industry News: The domestic butadiene market was slightly weak, and the downstream products' trends continued to decline. The synthetic rubber market had high supply pressure, but the downward space of the futures price was narrowing due to the price approaching the static cost line [19][20]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. 4. Asphalt - Market Performance: Asphalt showed that Shandong's factory warehouses were under pressure, and East China's shipments were stable. Futures prices had certain fluctuations, and the factory inventory in Shandong increased, while the social inventory in some regions decreased [22][34]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [31]. 5. LLDPE - Market Performance: LLDPE may have a medium - term oscillating market. The market price partially declined, with a decline range of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. The linear futures were weak, and some manufacturers' ex - factory prices were lowered [35]. - Market Analysis: Although the short - term commodity sentiment was weak, the PE demand continued to improve, mainly due to the peak - season stockpiling of the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure might be alleviated in the short - term, and the inventory pressure was not large, so the medium - term trend might be an interval oscillation [36]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [37]. 6. PP - Market Performance: PP's later - stage short - selling at low levels needs to be cautious, and the medium - term may be an oscillating market. The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The futures price was low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was insufficient [39][40]. - Market Analysis: The short - term demand improved month - on - month, but the cost was still weak. The supply - side maintenance increased, and the price elasticity at low levels was low. The downstream processing start - up rate improved slightly, but the procurement was in a "buy - on - rise" state [40]. - Trend: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [41]. 7. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: Caustic soda is suppressed by the weak reality. The 01 - contract futures price was 2535, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong had certain relationships with the futures price [43]. - Market Analysis: The 32% caustic soda in Shandong was under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production was difficult to be falsified in the short - term. The price of 50% caustic soda rose due to regional arbitrage, and the market was in a state of wide - range oscillation with multiple and short expectations intertwined [45]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [47]. 8. Pulp - Market Performance: Pulp showed a wide - range oscillating state. The futures price was relatively stable, and the spot price did not change significantly. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [50][51]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [50]. 9. Glass - Market Performance: Glass's original - sheet price was stable. The futures price declined, and the spot price in most regions was stable, with only some regions having small price fluctuations. The market trading activity was average, and the shipment in some southern regions was restricted by typhoon weather [54]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [54]. 10. Methanol - Market Performance: Methanol showed short - term oscillating operation. The futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had regional differences, with some regions having price increases and some having decreases [56][58]. - Market Analysis: The short - term main contract is under pressure and oscillating, but the downward space is gradually narrowing. The supply - side high - import volume and high - daily - output lead to increased inventory, while the downstream MTO production profit has improved [58]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [59]. 11. Urea - Market Performance: Urea shows short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures price declined slightly, and the spot price in some regions was stable, while in some regions, it had small fluctuations [60]. - Industry News: In mid - September 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased slightly, with some provinces having inventory increases and some having decreases. The export is accelerating, but the domestic demand is weak, and the medium - term trend is bearish [61]. - Trend: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [62]. 12. Styrene - Market Performance: Styrene is bearish in the medium - term. The futures price showed certain declines, and the spot price in Shandong was weak, with low downstream replenishment willingness [63][64]. - Market Analysis: The short - term market is oscillating and weak. The downstream demand in September is difficult to exceed expectations, and the port inventory may accumulate. The supply pressure of pure benzene in the fourth quarter is still high, and there is an opportunity for valuation correction [64]. - Trend: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [63]. 13. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The soda - ash spot market has little change. The futures price declined, and the spot price in different regions was relatively stable, with the supply at a high level and the downstream demand having no obvious fluctuations [67]. - Trend: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [67]. 14. LPG and Propylene - Market Performance: LPG shows short - term narrow - range oscillation, and propylene shows short - term weakness at a high level. The futures prices of LPG and propylene had certain fluctuations, and the trading volume and open interest also changed [69]. - Industry News: On September 23, 2025, the CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane in October and November were stable. There are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [76][77]. - Trend: The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral trend [73]. 15. PVC - Market Performance: PVC shows a weak - oscillating state. The domestic PVC spot market price decreased steadily, and the spot trading was dull, with Asian PVC October quotes remaining flat month - on - month [79]. - Market Analysis: The PVC supply side maintains high - level operation, the downstream demand related to real estate is weak, the inventory transfer is not smooth, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The future long - position receiving pressure increases [79]. - Trend: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [80]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Performance: Fuel oil's night - session strengthened significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak - oscillating state, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [82]. - Trend: The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [82]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Performance: The container shipping index (European line) shows an oscillating market. The futures prices of different contracts declined to varying degrees, and the shipping - rate index also decreased [84]. - Trend: No specific trend - intensity description is provided in the text.