国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends, including continued highs, oscillations, declines, and rebounds [2][5]. - Macroeconomic factors such as Fed policies, international political situations, and natural disasters impact commodity prices [8][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 843.00, up 1.87% [2][6][7]. - Silver: Undergoes oscillatory adjustments, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks driving forces, with prices oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [2][12][14]. - Zinc: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][20]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory band, with a trend strength of 0 [2][22][26]. - Aluminum: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina oscillates weakly, with a trend strength of -1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][29]. - Nickel: Nickel prices oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40]. - Industrial Silicon: Futures warehouse receipts increase, and market sentiment fluctuations should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0. Polysilicon's price declines on the disk, and there is a preference for short - term non - standard product shipments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41][43]. - Iron Ore: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Demand is weak, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][47][50]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: Prices oscillate widely due to the game of capital sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][51]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][54][56]. - Log: Prices oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - Para - Xylene and PTA: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][61]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Crude oil rebounds, providing support for international oils and fats [5][63]. - Soybean Oil: Argentina cancels the export tax on beans, and US soybeans oscillate weakly [5][63]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans close higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions [5][65]. - Soybean No. 1: The sentiment in the soybean market recovers, and prices rebound and oscillate [5][65]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [5][67]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the impact of "Hurricane Hagarsha" on sugarcane areas [5][69]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the transaction price of seed cotton [5][70]. - Egg: The peak season is not prosperous [5][72]. - Live Pig: It is in the stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [5][73]. - Peanut: Prices oscillate [5][74].