外围地缘政治不确定性上升，股指维持震荡整固：股指期货早报2025.9.24-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term stock index is likely to continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the technology, finance, and cyclical sectors in terms of sectors, and the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures. Position control is necessary. [4][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Overnight - US economic data in September showed a marginal decline but remained resilient. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25BP, but the subsequent monetary policy path is unclear, weakening the recent rate - cut logic. Geopolitical uncertainty has increased. Overnight asset prices showed different trends, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields dropping, gold hitting a new high, US stocks falling, and the VIX volatility rising. [2][6] Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21%. The market showed a wide - range volatile trend. The banking sector's rise disrupted the market rhythm, while the large - finance sector played a significant role in regulating the index. The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3800 points, and the market remained in a consolidation phase. [3][7] Important Information - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Powell's remarks suggest that interest rates are still tight, which may open the door for further rate cuts. Trump has made a series of statements on international relations and trade policies, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. There have also been diplomatic exchanges between China and the US, and China has implemented some domestic policies. [8][9] Today's Strategy - The large changes in the US foreign policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and the conflict among Fed officials' views on subsequent rate cuts will increase the volatility of overseas assets. The domestic market still has expectations for policies on the anniversary of 924. The short - term stock index is likely to continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The performance of various stock index futures contracts, including the closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, basis, and other indicators, is provided. The trading volume, turnover, and open interest of different contracts and their changes are also presented. [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The performance of the spot market shows that different indexes have different trends. The large - finance sector has an important impact on the market. The performance of different sectors varies, with some rising and some falling. Market style also has different impacts on different indexes. [3][37] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest - rate level are presented to reflect the market's liquidity situation. [55]