转型中国：日本1990还是美国1970？

Group 1: Economic Transformation Insights - China's current transformation strategy is more aligned with the U.S. in the 1970s, focusing on "going global" and "common prosperity" akin to the U.S. deindustrialization and Great Society initiatives[1] - The Chinese economy is entering the latter stage of transformation, with cyclical issues becoming less impactful, as evidenced by the decline in old economic drivers like real estate[1] - The transition phase requires patience in policy implementation, as excessive use of counter-cyclical policies may lead to structural issues similar to the U.S. in the 1960s and 70s[1] Group 2: Market and Policy Implications - The easing of cyclical pressures, particularly in real estate, suggests a potential formation of an "L-shaped" economic recovery, supported by counter-cyclical policies[1] - The ongoing structural reforms and technological breakthroughs, although slow, create opportunities for risk appetite and asset revaluation in the capital markets[1] - The A-share bull market since the "924" policy in 2021 reflects the synergy between counter-cyclical policies and technological advancements in sectors like AI and robotics[1] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include the possibility that the pace of structural reforms may not meet expectations, and uncertainties surrounding technological breakthroughs and external economic influences[1] - The decline in housing prices, with first-tier city prices dropping by 34.3% from their peak as of August 2025, highlights the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, indicating persistent economic weakness[3]