格林期货早盘提示-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock industry is moderately bullish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The log futures market has been oscillating recently. International prices remain high, while domestic spot prices are weak, increasing traders' operating pressure. Short - term imports are expected to be cautious, and the domestic supply may remain tight. Despite the traditional peak consumption season, last week's port shipments decreased, indicating that the recovery of terminal demand was less than expected. The overall inventory is low, and the de - stocking pressure is limited. The market fundamentals have improved, but the peak - season demand is mediocre, and the price upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 805.0 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.31% [3] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week [3] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs was 33.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters from the previous week [3] - The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week [3] Market Logic - The log futures market has been oscillating. International prices are high, domestic spot prices are weak, imports may be cautious, and supply may be tight. Terminal demand recovery is less than expected during the peak season, inventory is low, and de - stocking pressure is limited. Market fundamentals have improved, but peak - season demand is mediocre, and price upward momentum is insufficient [3] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract will oscillate [3]