可转债市场周观察：估值继续压缩，等待切入时机

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current self - adjustment of convertible bonds is not over, with weakened ability to follow the rise, and the valuation actively declines when the underlying stock pulls back. In the current market, the cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, but considering the slow - bull market of A - shares, there is no need to be overly worried. Now is a concentrated point for convertible bond realization, and high - price, low - premium equity - like varieties and defensive individual bonds are more worthy of consideration, such as some bottom - position varieties represented by banks [6][9]. - Backtesting on recent years' forced redemption cases shows that there are objective returns and a certain degree of certainty in gambling on forced redemption clauses. The number of subsequent forced redemptions and waived forced redemptions is still considerable and worthy of attention [6][9]. - The equity market showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, with sector differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index almost broke through the 3900 mark at the beginning of the week and then adjusted significantly. The short - term index needs to oscillate and adjust, but the view of a positive long - term index trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the press conference of the State Council Information Office next Monday [6][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Views: Valuation Continues to Compress, Waiting for the Entry Opportunity - The self - adjustment of convertible bonds is ongoing, with weakened follow - up ability and active valuation decline. The current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, but there's no need for excessive worry. High - price, low - premium equity - like varieties and defensive individual bonds are recommended. The equity market had a volatile week, and the long - term trend of the index is still positive [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Follow the Decline Again, Valuation Continues to Fall 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Equity Rises First and Then Falls, Technology Remains the Main Line - From September 15th to September 19th, market index performance was differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 fell 0.44%, the CSI 1000 rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, the STAR 50 rose 1.84%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.43%. In terms of industries, coal, power equipment, and electronics led the rise, while banks, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 1922.4 billion yuan to 2.52 trillion yuan. The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Jingxing, Hengshuai, Songsheng, etc., and Jingxing, Jing 23, Liyang, etc. were more active in trading [13]. 2.2 Valuation Actively Compresses, High - Price, Medium - and Low - Rated Convertible Bonds Perform Well - Last week, convertible bonds pulled back again, with active valuation compression. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 818.02 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%, the parity center decreased by 1.1% to 111.1 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased by 1.1% to 18.9%. In terms of style, high - price, medium - and low - rated convertible bonds performed well last week, while AA + rated and large - cap convertible bonds performed weakly [6][18]