国泰海通晨报-20250924

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase auction method is essentially a continuation of previous policy thoughts, with limited incremental information being conveyed [3][17] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a strong continuity in its monetary policy approach, with the recent adjustments aimed at stabilizing liquidity rather than signaling a shift towards more accommodative policies [2][19] - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repurchase is limited, and it is likely to continue being used as an unconventional tool to address special periods such as holidays [4][18] Group 2: Construction Industry - In the 38th week of 2025, the issuance of new special bonds by local governments decreased by 25.8% compared to the previous week, with a total issuance of 978.2 billion yuan [8] - The financing net amount of urban investment bonds decreased year-on-year, indicating a contraction in funding for construction projects [8] - The construction site funding availability rate was reported at 59.39%, showing a slight week-on-week increase but a year-on-year decline of 3.13% [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transaction area decreased by 4.2% [9] - The cumulative transaction area for new homes this year is down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate market [9] - Land supply in 100 cities decreased by 13.7% year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in the real estate development pipeline [9] Group 4: Company Analysis - China Power Construction Corporation signed new orders worth 800.79 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [11] - China Chemical Corporation's new orders for the same period were 256.34 billion yuan, showing a minimal year-on-year increase of 0.1% [11] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation's new orders decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, indicating challenges in securing new contracts [11] Group 5: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi's revenue projections for FY2025E-FY2027E are maintained at 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion yuan [12] - The company is expected to exceed its annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles, with stable delivery volumes above 30,000 units in July and August [13] - The air conditioning segment saw a significant increase in shipments, with over 5.4 million units sold in Q2 2025, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [14] Group 6: Industry Trends - The global wind power installation volume is expected to continue growing, with significant contributions from China, Europe, and North America [26] - The demand for wind turbine blade materials is anticipated to expand due to policy encouragement and declining costs [24] - The chemical raw materials manufacturing industry has a current static P/E ratio of 27.95, indicating a competitive valuation landscape [27]