Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a downward - prone trend due to weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply pressure from device resumption and increasing external imports, as well as sluggish downstream demand [2][9] Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Since the third quarter of this year, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been abundant. Iranian device restarted with increased operating rate, and India's shift to non - Iranian sources led to more Iranian shipments to China. Excess methanol from Europe also flowed to China, pushing up imports. It's estimated that China's methanol imports in August might be 1.4 - 1.5 million tons and could remain at 1.4 - 1.45 million tons in September [2][4] - Since September, some domestic methanol devices have been under maintenance, causing a decline in weekly operating rate and output. As of September 19, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, down 1.81% week - on - week, 1.26% month - on - month, and 1.53% year - on - year. The weekly output was 1.8132 million tons, down 0.1061 million tons week - on - week, 0.0842 million tons month - on - month, and 0.0302 million tons year - on - year. September output is expected to drop to 7.8 million tons, but supply pressure will increase again after the National Day as devices resume production [3] Demand - Although the domestic methanol market has entered the traditional peak consumption season, the recovery of olefin demand has fallen short of expectations. As of September 19, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin devices was 82.88%, up 3.58% month - on - month, and the futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month [5][7] - The traditional downstream demand for methanol was also under - performing. As of September 19, the formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, up 1.06 percentage points week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, down 0.11 percentage points week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, down 3.84 percentage points week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, up 1.85 percentage points week - on - week [7] Inventory - As of September 19, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, up 0.0625 million tons week - on - week, 0.3956 million tons month - on - month, and 0.4872 million tons year - on - year. The high import volume and weak downstream demand led to a continuous increase in coastal port methanol inventory [4] Market Performance - Since this week, the main contract MA2601 of domestic methanol futures has continued a weak and volatile trend, with the price center steadily moving down to the range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2]
甲醇，港口累库压力增大
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-24 02:37