Changjiang Securities·2025-09-24 02:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the optical module sector, indicating that the actual performance PE of leading companies is significantly lower than the consensus expected PE, suggesting room for upward valuation adjustments [3][6]. Core Insights - The current AI-driven market for optical modules shows a rapid amplification effect similar to the "Davis Double Play" seen in the consumer electronics sector, alongside attributes of "profit exceeding expectations and valuation mismatch" observed in the renewable energy sector, indicating both explosive growth potential and sustainability [3][6]. - The report highlights that the leading companies in the optical module market, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, have experienced substantial rebounds in their stock prices, with respective increases of 481%, 607%, and 305% from their year-to-date lows [6]. - The anticipated performance PE for these companies from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 52/36/30x for Zhongji Xuchuang, 44/29/24x for Xinyi Technology, and 69/50/39x for Tianfu Communication, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6]. Summary by Sections Vertical Analysis - The report discusses the varying performance of leading companies in different market cycles, noting that the AI model training has led to a surge in computing power demand, significantly elevating the valuations of these companies [8]. - The actual performance PE of leading companies is currently underestimated compared to their expected performance PE, with Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication showing potential increases of 167%, 129%, and 103% respectively [8]. Horizontal Analysis - The report compares the optical module sector with consumer electronics and renewable energy sectors, emphasizing that the current market dynamics are driven by AI computing demand, which is distinct from the product-driven cycles seen in consumer electronics and policy-driven cycles in renewable energy [8]. - The optical module sector is characterized by a robust technological advantage and manufacturing capability, positioning it for sustained growth compared to its peers [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a reevaluation of leading optical module companies, highlighting the need for market participants to recognize the significant upside potential in their valuations as the demand for optical modules continues to rise due to increased ASIC usage and ongoing technological advancements [3][6].