集运日报：现货运价下跌不止，多头情绪出尽，盘面再度下行，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the bullish sentiment has faded. The market is weakening, and it is not recommended to add more positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Tariff issues have a marginal effect. In the short - term, wait for the market to bottom; in the long - term, take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [4]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Indexes - From September 19th to 22nd, multiple freight rate indexes declined. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped 13.24%, the SCFIS (European route) fell 12.9%, and the NCFI (US West route) decreased 23.30% [3]. Economic Data - In August, the manufacturing PMI in China was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI all showed improvement. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - The US August manufacturing and services PMI data were better than expected [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and it is recommended to stop loss on long positions and wait for the bottoming opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to temporarily observe or participate with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Market Conditions - On September 23rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a decline of 0.18%, a trading volume of 28,500 lots, and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4,522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23rd, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].