Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish on px - mx [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [4] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have led to a short - term rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is under downward pressure [1][7][9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end rebound and weak downstream demand, showing a weakening trend [1][12][13]. - L has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with strong supply and demand fundamentally but insufficient upward drive [1][18]. - PP has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and slow - rising demand [1][23]. - PVC has good cost support and strong exports, but the supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [1][28]. - PX's supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosening, and it is expected to be weak [1][31][32]. - PTA's supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [2][35][36]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, but the low inventory provides some support [2][40][41]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is still large, but the demand has improved, and the downward space may be limited [2][43][45]. - Urea's supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [2][48][50]. - Natural gas in the US has seen an unexpected inventory build - up, leading to a weakening price, but the cooling weather provides some support [4]. - Asphalt is under pressure due to the weak cost - end and loose supply - demand situation [4]. - Glass has a weak reality and strong expectation, with supply under pressure and demand insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Soda ash's supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.81%, Brent up 1.52%, and SC down 1.84% [6]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical disturbances and unexpected inventory draw - down in the US provided short - term support, but the long - term supply is in surplus [7][8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, focus on the break - even point of shale oil new wells around $60 [9]. LPG - Market Review: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [11]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus, and the demand for downstream chemicals has weakened, with high warehouse receipts [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] yuan/ton [13]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [17]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with abundant supply and strengthening demand [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long, focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,200] yuan/ton [18]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [22]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and rising demand [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: The industry can hedge at high prices, do not chase short at low absolute prices, focus on the range of [6,800 - 6,950] yuan/ton [23]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [27]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improved, exports were strong, but supply was stronger than demand, and inventory was accumulating [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips due to low valuation, focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] yuan/ton [28]. PX - Market Review: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [31]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side changes were small, demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand tight - balance expectation was loosening [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [6,515 - 6,600] yuan/ton [32]. PTA - Market Review: On September 19, the PTA price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [34]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was underperforming, and the demand was weak [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short at high prices, focus on the range of [4,550 - 4,600] yuan/ton [36]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [39]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, demand was weak, but low inventory provided some support [40]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] yuan/ton [41]. Methanol - Market Review: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [42]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure was still large, but demand had improved, and cost support was stabilizing [43][44]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract, focus on the range of [2,335 - 2,365] yuan/ton [45]. Urea - Market Review: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton [47]. - Basic Logic: Supply was relatively loose, demand was weak at home and strong abroad, and inventory was accumulating [48][49]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to go long at low valuations, focus on the range of [1,650 - 1,670] yuan/ton [50]. Natural Gas - Market Review: As of the week of September 12, the US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4]. - Basic Logic: Unexpected inventory build - up led to price weakening, but cooling weather provided some support [4]. Asphalt - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: Cost - end was weak, supply - demand was loose, and the valuation was high [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: Supply was under pressure, demand was insufficient, and inventory was expected to increase [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short term, be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was mostly for rigid needs [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].
中辉能化观点-20250924
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-24 03:07