Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation, and the market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are supported by the peak season, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point. The price is expected to be adjusted weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - Six short - flow steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - The fundamental situation of alumina remains in an oversupply pattern. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high [3] - As of last Thursday, the total installed capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly starting rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - Last week, the starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] - On September 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots at domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 100 tons higher than last Monday. From September 16 - 21, the domestic aluminum ingot delivery volume was 122,300 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250924
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-09-24 03:06