受原油上涨提振，棉花短期有所支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The cotton market is expected to see a phased recovery in demand during the traditional peak season, and the price has the potential to rise [1][2] - The strategy recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Nanning's spot sugar price is 5780 yuan, Kunming's is 5800 yuan, and Xinjiang's spot cotton price is 15150 yuan. The US sugar closed at 16.16, up 1.96%, and the US cotton closed at 66.61, up 0.54% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and imports have increased significantly. Cotton: In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10022.0, down 2.84%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3915.0, down 4.42% [1] Data Overview - Outer - Market Quotes: On September 23, 2025, the US sugar was at 16.16 (up 1.96% from September 22), and the US cotton was at 66.61 (up 0.54% from September 22) [3] - Spot Prices: On September 23, 2025, Nanning's sugar price was 5780 yuan (down 0.34% from September 22), Kunming's was 5800 yuan (down 0.34% from September 22), the cotton index 328 was 3280 (down 0.60% from September 22), and Xinjiang's cotton price was 15150 yuan (down 0.33% from September 22) [3] - Spread Overview: For example, SR01 - 05 spread was 33.0 on September 23, 2025 (up 65.00% from September 22), and CF01 - 05 spread was - 20.0 (up 300.00% from September 22) [3] - Import Prices: The cotton cotlookA price remained unchanged at 77.85 from September 22 to September 23, 2025 [3] - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1654.0 from September 22 to September 23, 2025 [3] - Options: For options such as SR601C5400, the implied volatility was 0.0848, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.21 [3] - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: On September 23, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts were 10022.0 (down 2.84% from September 22), and cotton warehouse receipts were 3915.0 (down 4.42% from September 22) [3] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been affected, delaying the sugar factory's start - up time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the ending inventory is expected to be reduced. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand in the textile market is expected to recover during the peak season, driving up cotton prices [2]