FICC日报：船司10月下半月尝试挺价，关注MSC以及马士基下半月报价-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ship operators are trying to raise prices in the second half of October. Attention should be paid to the quotes of MSC and Maersk in the second half of the month [1][4]. - The valuation of October contracts is becoming clearer. Normally, April and October are the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The settlement price of October contracts is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27 [4]. - The trading rhythm of December contracts is expected to first trade on the price increase expectation, then on the actual implementation of the price increase letter, and so on until the delivery. Due to frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [5]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and for arbitrage, short the October contract [7]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from week 40 to week 41, while HPL - SPOT's quotes increased from October to November. CMA tried to raise prices in the second half of October for the Shanghai - Antwerp route [1][2]. - Geopolitical and Capacity: The Poland - Belarus border port will reopen. The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 272,600 TEU, and in November it was 285,200 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. b. Contract Analysis - October Contracts: The settlement price of October contracts is based on the arithmetic average of SCFIS on specific dates. Currently, the freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the quotes in the second half of October [4]. - December Contracts: The trading rhythm of December contracts is affected by Western holidays and long - term contract negotiations. The demand in the US line is weak, and if ships are transferred to the European line, it may put pressure on European line prices [5]. c. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: As of September 23, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 81,543 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 45,629 lots. Different contracts had different closing prices [6]. - Spot Prices: On September 19, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price was $1052/TEU, and other routes also had corresponding prices. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1254.92 points [6]. d. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU had been delivered [6]. e. Strategy - Single - side: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Arbitrage: Short the October contract. f. Risks - Downside Risks: Unexpected decline in the European and American economies, significant drop in crude oil prices, more - than - expected ship deliveries, less - than - expected ship idling, and better - than - expected handling of the Red Sea crisis [7]. - Upside Risks: Recovery of the European and American economies, new problems in the supply chain, significant reduction of capacity by liner companies, and continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to detours [7].