丙烯日报：供应端增量继续压制丙烯价格-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the short - spread of PL01 - 02 when it rises to a high level; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure remains large due to the restart of upstream devices and the expected restart of major PDH devices, as well as the increased production of new capacities. The demand is mainly driven by short - term bottom support from pre - holiday stocking by downstream factories, but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has weakened as international oil prices have rebounded slightly but remain weak, and the price of external propane is relatively firm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][22][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, the production profit and operating rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [39][41][44][52][55][57][59] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]