黑色建材日报：市场预期转弱，钢价震荡偏弱-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The market expectation has weakened, and steel prices are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand contradiction in the glass and soda ash markets still exists, and their prices are oscillating weakly. The macro - sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened, and their prices are oscillating and consolidating [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated downward with active trading. The main 2601 contract dropped 2.39% at the close. In the spot market, downstream buyers were cautious and mainly replenished stocks before the holiday [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream stock replenishment, with limited change in rigid demand. The significant premium in the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases and reduces factory inventories. The glass futures price is easily influenced by news, but the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and the performance of peak - season demand [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated downward with active trading. The main 2601 contract dropped 2.6% at the close. In the spot market, downstream trading sentiment cooled, and buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments before the holiday [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market still exists. With the ignition of Phase II of Yuanxing, the future supply pressure will further increase. Attention should be paid to whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Currently, the premium in the soda ash futures market suppresses the price. Later, focus on the progress of new - capacity production and inventory changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: After various meetings ended, the macro - sentiment declined, and the black - commodity market corrected. The silicomanganese futures continued to oscillate and consolidate. Yesterday, the main silicomanganese futures contract closed at 5,882 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. Factory operation sentiment was okay, but market trading sentiment was cautious. The price in the northern 6517 market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week, the silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while the hot - metal production slightly increased. The downstream demand for silicomanganese remained resilient, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises increased. In the long run, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is still relatively loose. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will fluctuate with the sector. Later, pay attention to regional policies and electricity - price changes [3] - Strategy: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,698 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the sentiment in the ferrosilicon market was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week, the ferrosilicon production remained flat, the demand declined, and the factory inventory decreased month - on - month. Currently, the supply - demand of the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, the profit of ferrosilicon is still restricted. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will fluctuate with the sector. Later, pay attention to regional policies and electricity - price changes [3] - Strategy: Oscillating [4]