Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber (RU and NR), until the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas will continue to support rubber costs, limiting the downside of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories may be over, and with a slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. Tire demand is in a seasonal peak, with recent increases in tire factory operating rates and ongoing raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited [7] - For cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber (BR), recently shut - down plants will gradually restart, increasing the supply. The demand side shows peak - season characteristics, but raw material demand has declined after the concentrated replenishment of tire factories. Supply - demand is becoming more relaxed. There are concerns about cost drag, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices and high inventories of butadiene. BR prices are expected to weaken, but the large price difference with natural rubber will still support the downside [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,395 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [2] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information Import and Export of Rubber and Tires - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [3] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [3] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Automobile Production, Sales and Export - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4] Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 775 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 745 yuan/ton (-20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,556 yuan/ton (-136.43), the NR basis was 644.00 yuan/ton (+21.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (-70), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,680 yuan/ton (-70) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.73 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.85 Thai baht/kg (-0.60) [5] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+0.13%) [6] - The operating rate of high - cis cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber was 69.72% (-3.76%) [6] Inventories - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (-1,411) [6] - The inventory of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber held by traders was 7,820 tons (-390), and the inventory held by enterprises was 25,900 tons (-400) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 30 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private - owned cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,514 yuan/ton (+214) [6]
本周降雨持续，天然橡胶成本支撑延续
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-24 05:06