氯碱日报：烧碱现货价格下跌，高度碱订单好转-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new capacity and some restarted plants. Although downstream demand has increased with more pre - sales, social inventory is rising, and export expectations are weakening in Q4. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation with potential for further profit compression [4]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been decreasing, while the orders for 50% caustic soda are improving. Production may increase slightly as some plants resume operation. Demand support is wavering, but cost support remains, and the profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - PVC - Futures: The closing price of the main PVC contract is 4891 yuan/ton (- 47), with an East China basis of - 171 yuan/ton (+ 7) and a South China basis of - 81 yuan/ton (+ 17) [2]. - Spot: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4720 yuan/ton (- 40), and South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4810 yuan/ton (- 30) [2]. - Upstream Profit: The calcium - carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium - carbide - based PVC gross profit is - 657 yuan/ton (- 155), the ethylene - based PVC gross profit is - 652 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.1) [2]. - Inventory and Operation: Factory inventory is 30.6 tons (- 0.4), social inventory is 53.5 tons (+ 0.3), the calcium - carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.91% (- 3.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 72.00% (- 5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.43% (- 3.96%) [2]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.6 tons (+ 6.7) [2]. - Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2535 yuan/ton (- 69), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 35 yuan/ton (+ 69) [2]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1300 yuan/ton (+ 30) [2]. - Upstream Profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 179.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1361.25 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.83 tons (+ 2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.18 tons (- 0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate is 81.90% (- 1.50%) [3]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 86.23% (+ 1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.76% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.52% (+ 1.75%) [3]. Market Analysis - PVC - Supply: Shaanxi Beiyuan plans to conduct maintenance, and some previously maintained plants have restarted, with expected lower maintenance losses. Newly - commissioned plants are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [4]. - Demand: Downstream pre - sales are increasing, and overall downstream operation has improved, but the trading atmosphere is average. Exports are increasing in the short - term but are expected to weaken in Q4 [4]. - Inventory: Social inventory is rising, and the absolute inventory level is high [4]. - Price: The futures price is under pressure due to high - level warehouse receipts and hedging [4]. - Caustic Soda - Supply: Some previously maintained plants in Hubei and Inner Mongolia have restarted, and new capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [4]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but high - price sales are difficult, and inventory is accumulating. Non - aluminum downstream operation is increasing, but there is a fear of high prices [4]. - Price: The price of 32% caustic soda has decreased, while the price of 50% caustic soda has stabilized [4]. - Profit: The profit is at a medium level compared to the same period, with cost support [4]. Strategy - PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Inter - month Spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - 05 when the spread is high [5] - Inter - commodity Spread: None [5] - Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait - and - see [6] - Inter - month Spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - 05 when the spread is low [6] - Inter - commodity Spread: None [6]