贵金属日报：美联储分歧加大，经济数据延续弱势-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Federal Reserve has increased, and the US economic data continues to be weak. The market tends to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near future, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 845 yuan/gram and 875 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,250 yuan/kilogram and 10,550 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The divergence within the Federal Reserve on the future monetary policy path has increased. Fed Governor Bowman supports three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, while Goolsbee believes the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts. The US economic data in September showed that the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, all lower than expected and hitting a three-month low [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 847.50 yuan/gram and closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 258,495 lots, and the open interest was 271,554 lots. The night session opened at 861.34 yuan/gram and closed at 859.88 yuan/gram, up 0.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,349 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 811,054 lots, and the open interest was 508,755 lots. The night session opened at 10,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.106%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.533%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions increased by 2,078 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 458 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 398,549 lots, up 9.79% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,690 lots, and the short positions increased by 1 lot. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,332,060 lots, down 0.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,000.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,469 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 23, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -18.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,005.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.66, up 0.74% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 85.33, down 0.52% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,156 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 548,328 kilograms, down 9.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,000 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 55,200 kilograms [7].