农产品日报：棉价延续震荡，纸浆低位盘整-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton inventory is at a near - four - year low, and the new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation may bring pressure during the new - flower listing period [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar export decreased in September. The Brazilian supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. In China, the supply is sufficient in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward [4][5][6] - For pulp, overseas pulp mills' plans have a certain impact on the market, but the global supply pressure still exists. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is weak, especially in China. The pulp price is expected to remain low [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan/ton. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, the harvesting rate was 12%, and the excellent - good rate was 47% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the September USDA report adjusted up the global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending inventories. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand improves marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation may bring pressure [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Cotton prices are supported before the large - scale listing of new cotton, but there may be pressure during the listing period. In the long term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5444 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan were 5780 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, both down 20 yuan/ton. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 30.13 million tons (11.12%) compared with the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. In China, the supply is sufficient in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward [5][6] Strategy - Be neutral. The sugar price may have a short - term rebound but is bearish in the medium term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5008 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot: The prices of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp and Russian softwood pulp in Shandong were 5610 yuan/ton and 5110 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The import pulp spot market prices were basically stable, with only sporadic increases [6][7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' plans have a certain impact, but the global supply pressure still exists. The domestic supply is loose. Demand: The global pulp consumption is weak, especially in China, and the demand is the core factor suppressing the pulp price [8] Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp price is expected to remain low in the short term due to insufficient fundamental improvement and pressure from near - month contracts [9]